ABs' world cup success key to election timing

Relevant offers

Politics

Shake-up heading in EQC's direction Will bill make food safer or be a form of control? Brownlee turns up heat on council over rebuild Agency mulled to run emergency 111 system MPs' travel bills leap during election Remedial work for navy's problem ship Wait for new oil law before awarding permits, Govt urged TVNZ included in police Electoral Act investigation Mana activist on mission to Antarctica The week in politics

An All Blacks win in the Rugby World Cup 2011 could mean extra votes for the National Party at next year's general election, political commentators say.

But the prospect of a rugby loss could still scare the prime minister into calling a snap election before – or even during – the tournament.

John Key has said he expects next year's general election to be held after the cup final has been played, and experts say that is probably the wisest path for National – but there are risks.

Past associations between cup results and support for the sitting government include the All Blacks' win in 1987 (which, some commentators argue, cemented Labour's re-election) and New Zealand's shock semi-final loss in 1999, which may have been the nail in National's coffin.

The world cup final will be held on October 23 next year and, by convention, general elections are usually held in November. By law, the government could stretch election day out as far as early January 2012, or Key could call a snap election any time from now, as long as he gives a minimum 21 days' notice.

Key said last week that an election before the world cup was "very unlikely". He said there would be a "huge focus on both – at different times".

Options were "more limited" than in other years, he said.

The link between major sporting events and electoral outcomes is recognised well beyond New Zealand – in the 1970s, US social psychologists labelled the tendency for individuals to emphasise connections between themselves and publicly successful people as "basking in reflected glory", or BIRGing.

Although anyone can do a bit of BIRGing, politicians have long been happy to cosy up to sports teams to improve their reputations.

Nigel Roberts, adjunct professor of political science at Victoria University, said that although National was tipped to lose the 1999 election anyway, the All Blacks' shock semi-final defeat to France did not help. "When it turned out we were beaten a fortnight before the election, there was disbelief. It just added to a general feeling of malaise. It was time for a change, things weren't smiling on a government that was looking pretty tatty after the alliance with New Zealand First."

Roberts said that next year anything less than an All Blacks win would be bad for National.

"If the Nats are doing pretty well still, and New Zealand does win the world cup on its soil, that could well be the final coup de grace for the government to get back in.

"On the other hand, if New Zealand was to lose, it would come not as a screaming full stop – but it would sure put a dampener on things."

Jon Johansson, a lecturer in comparative politics at Victoria University, said there was speculation Key would call the election for August to eliminate risk a world cup defeat would hurt National's chances, but he was sceptical – "not least because if they went before then it would be like a vote of no confidence in the All Blacks, and this government has wrapped itself all around the All Blacks".

Marc Wilson, a Victoria University senior lecturer in psychology, said big sports wins tended to make voters feel "comfortable" and less in the mood for change. Wilson said if Key went for a post-cup election, he should give it a little bit of time if the All Blacks hadn't come out on top, "so people aren't feeling the pain of a loss, and can be reminded of the warm fuzzy feelings of a win".

Poor ticket sales present another potential pitfall for Key's government. Under the hosting agreement with the International Rugby Board, organisers can keep only revenue generated from ticket sales, and New Zealand stadiums are too small to sell huge numbers of tickets. The government has agreed to underwrite 33% of any losses. Although RWC boss Martin Sneddon predicts a $40 million loss, others say it could top $90m.

That would mean a $30m bill for taxpayers, which could be a bitter pill to swallow in an election year – even though Key says the cup could deliver a $1.25 billion tourism boost to New Zealand's economy.

Wilson said the timing of the election and the cup was "putting a lot of eggs in one basket" for the government. "If ticket sales are not good, and the New Zealand government ends up underwriting a loss, then the perception will be that it is coming out of our pockets. Assuming the All Blacks do well, then at least it will balance. If the All Blacks don't do well and there's a loss, then New Zealanders will feel cheated because the team they usually support symbolically hasn't coughed up the results."

- © Fairfax NZ News