Labour sprinting like a glacier up to National

Like the Tasman Glacier's sprint to the sea, Labour is slowly closing the gap on National.

Today's Fairfax Media-Research International poll continues the trend of the past few months: a slow erosion of National's backing towards 50 per cent and a consolidation of Labour's support at or above 30 per cent.

Beyond that, there is no sign of any plate-shifting move in popular support of the size Phil Goff needs to steal a victory from under John Key's nose.

At this stage there are only three things likely to move the polls.

The most obvious is a big policy king hit; think interest-free student loans announced by Labour in the 2005 campaign.

This time around, Labour's king-hit policy releases have come and gone: capital gains tax, compulsory savings, and a future lift in the retirement age have all been put on the table.

The commentators and the tax and savings gurus have applauded, but the voters have stubbornly refused to agree that a policy that gets the nod from the experts should also get their vote.

On the negative side, National's asset sales policy is no more popular than it ever was, and Labour is throwing half its billboards at the issue, but it, too, is not moving allegiances.

The second opinion-changer would be a change of views on leadership.

Think the worm's effect on Peter Dunne's results back in 2002, though that was very much a minor party dynamic.

Mr Goff did shade Mr Key in the first face-to-face debate, mainly because the prime minister looked slightly shifty at the end of the show. But by emphasising its policy and its "team" and downplaying the Goff factor, Labour has largely conceded on that one; though in the latest poll Mr Goff's preferred prime minister rating has started to edge higher. The final option is an external event; a Corngate fracas or a crisis badly handled, though Rena is not proving to be a significant game-changer.

When Fairfax started its series of polls in July National was in front by more than 27 points on 56.1 per cent against Labour on 28.7 per cent. After a rise for National and a dip for Labour in August the gap has narrowed to "just" 21 points.

At this rate National and John Key are going to feel Labour's hot breath on their necks some time around mid-2013.

- Fairfax NZ