National's golden run

Key still ahead of Clark as Labour lags 18 points behind

Graph compiled using data from Colmar Brunton and Fairfax Media-Nielsen polls.

Fairfax Media

GEOFF DALE/ Dominion Post

HOME SWEET HOME: John Key outside his $7m Parnell mansion in 2004. If National wins the election he would divide his time between this home and Premier House in Wellington.

ANTHONY PHELPS/Dominion Post

STATE RESIDENCE: Premier House in Thorndon, Wellington which comes complete with a housekeeper. It is the Wellington residence of the prime minsiter of the day.

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A snapshot of the public mood after Helen Clark's election-date announcement shows it would take a huge swing to Labour for her to win a fourth term.

Today's Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll, taken mostly in the days after Miss Clark named a November 8 election, puts National on 52 per cent support, 18 points ahead of Labour.

The poll confirms a trend which has had National sitting above 50 per cent since November - and John Key ahead of Miss Clark as preferred prime minister for almost as long. It is a golden run of support that Labour will find difficult to break as the election date looms.

In announcing the November 8 election, Miss Clark was banking on a long campaign to chip away at her opponent on the key issues of trust and experience.

But the economy could be the deciding factor, with the full extent of turmoil on world financial markets yet to become clear, and workers and home owners facing uncertain times.

The Greens are the only minor party to make the 5 per cent threshold in today's poll, though the Maori Party, ACT and UnitedFuture are all expected back with constituency seats.

Support for NZ First is unchanged on our poll a month ago, despite police, Serious Fraud Office and parliamentary inquiries into party donations.

In the prime minister stakes, Mr Key still leads Miss Clark - though 21 per cent of voters don't know who they prefer.

The poll questioned 1130 people and has a margin of error of 3 per cent. The results exclude 11 per cent of voters who have not decided which party to vote for.

WHAT'S AT STAKE?

Power and prestige aren't all that are up for grabs in the election. A change of government could be a life-changing experience for both Helen Clark and John Key.

Some of the demands, and perks, of being prime minister are shared by the Opposition leader - chauffeur-driven cars, free (and frequent) flights, snatched weekends with the family and meals grabbed in the Koru Club.

But when the prime minister flies, the seat next door is left empty and she enters and leaves the plane from the airbridge side door.

If National wins, Mr Key will move out of his Wellington apartment on The Terrace into the larger and grander Premier House in Thorndon. A housekeeper will be on hand to cook his meals - which could be just as well, as he admits he has yet to cook in his apartment.

He would also get a $140,000 pay rise. But it is the discreet, chisel-jawed and ubiquitous presence of police bodyguards that could take the most getting used to. Go to the dairy for milk and the security detail comes too.

Go to the gym, they come along. Head to the airport bathroom before a flight and they'll be lingering, ever so discreetly, outside.

For Miss Clark, they occupy the house next door to her Epsom villa, and stay there when she is in Auckland.

For Mr Key, accommodation near his $7 million Parnell mansion could be a problem. Given local prices, they may need to base themselves somewhere in his grounds.

Despite the loss of privacy, it's still possible for our leaders to keep some normality in their lives, says Miss Clark's former press secretary, Mike Munro.

"We're quite lucky in New Zealand that we can still have prime ministers who are living in their own homes ... that Helen Clark can still go down to the shops on a Saturday morning, and she does.

"I can recall travelling with her in her local suburb and she'd get the driver to pull over and she'd jump out of the car and go to the bank."