Some 2012 political predictions
The Fairfax Gallery team do an annual set of political predictions. They're normally very accurate so on the basis that if you can't beat them, join them I'd figure I'd offer my own set of predictions for 2012:
1. Labour will poll over 30 per cent on the first poll of 2012.
2. Asenati Taylor will surprise many as the most impressive NZ First MP.
3. Forty-nine per cent of Mighty River Power will be sold before 2013, with huge demand leading to over $2 billion proceeds from the sale.
4. There will be no ministerial resignations due to scandal in 2012.
5. Lockwood Smith will become high commissioner to London, and a minister will replace him as the new Speaker.
6. Lockwood will throw Winston Peters out of the debating chamber on at least two occasions before he departs.
7. There will be at one by-election in 2012 (and two in 2013).
8. Aaron Gilmore will be an MP again before Christmas 2012.
9. The 2012 budget will be followed by at least three public sector strikes demanding pay increases.
10. Unemployment will be below 6 per cent by the end of 2012, and inflation will be below 3 per cent
11. The review of MMP will recommend getting rid of the one-seat threshold and reducing the party vote threshold to 4 per cent.
12. The constitutional review will propose an upper house known as the "Treaty House" which is 50 per cent tangata whenua, and will have similar powers to the House of Lords to scrutinise and delay legislation.
13. Defence lawyers will start a Bring Back Simon Power campaign.
14. The age for buying alcohol will increase to 20 for at least off-licences.
15. Labour List MP Rajen Prasad will put out twice as many press releases in 2012 than he did in the previous three years.
16. As Sue Kedgley has retired, Easter will pass without a Green MP putting out a press release condemning the size of Easter eggs as too large.
17. The first prosecution in the Copyright Tribunal for copyright infringing through file-sharing will occur.
18. NZ First will drop below 5 per cent in the polls, and by coincidence Winston Peters will attack immigrants the following fortnight.
19. The Crafar farms will be bought by Landcorp.
20. The Government will pledge to implement every recommendation made by the Royal Commission into the Pike River disaster.
What do you think I have right or wrong? Any other predictions you want to make? In a year's time we can see how we have done.
David Farrar is a centre-right blogger affiliated to the National Party. His disclosure statement is here.
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