Some 2012 political predictions

Last updated 10:42 21/12/2011

The Fairfax Gallery team do an annual set of political predictions. They're normally very accurate so on the basis that if you can't beat them, join them I'd figure I'd offer my own set of predictions for 2012:

1. Labour will poll over 30 per cent on the first poll of 2012.

2. Asenati Taylor will surprise many as the most impressive NZ First MP.

3. Forty-nine per cent of Mighty River Power will be sold before 2013, with huge demand leading to over $2 billion proceeds from the sale.

4. There will be no ministerial resignations due to scandal in 2012.

5. Lockwood Smith will become high commissioner to London, and a minister will replace him as the new Speaker.

6. Lockwood will throw Winston Peters out of the debating chamber on at least two occasions before he departs.

7. There will be at one by-election in 2012 (and two in 2013).

8. Aaron Gilmore will be an MP again before Christmas 2012.

9. The 2012 budget will be followed by at least three public sector strikes demanding pay increases.

10. Unemployment will be below 6 per cent by the end of 2012, and inflation will be below 3 per cent

11. The review of MMP will recommend getting rid of the one-seat threshold and reducing the party vote threshold to 4 per cent.

12. The constitutional review will propose an upper house known as the "Treaty House" which is 50 per cent tangata whenua, and will have similar powers to the House of Lords to scrutinise and delay legislation.

13. Defence lawyers will start a Bring Back Simon Power campaign.

14. The age for buying alcohol will increase to 20 for at least off-licences.

15. Labour List MP Rajen Prasad will put out twice as many press releases in 2012 than he did in the previous three years.

16. As Sue Kedgley has retired, Easter will pass without a Green MP putting out a press release condemning the size of Easter eggs as too large.

17. The first prosecution in the Copyright Tribunal for copyright infringing through file-sharing will occur.

18. NZ First will drop below 5 per cent in the polls, and by coincidence Winston Peters will attack immigrants the following fortnight.

19. The Crafar farms will be bought by Landcorp.

20. The Government will pledge to implement every recommendation made by the Royal Commission into the Pike River disaster.

What do you think I have right or wrong? Any other predictions you want to make? In a year's time we can see how we have done.

David Farrar is a centre-right blogger affiliated to the National Party. His disclosure statement is here.

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dan   #1   10:49 am Dec 21 2011

A "treaty house" with 50% tangata whenua?!? That will never fly if people representing only 15% of the population get 50% say over the law making process.

Peter Smith (Peter S)   #2   11:08 am Dec 21 2011

My prediction.

The greens will begin a steady decline in the polls- this will become more pronounced in 2013 and beyond as Labour gains traction and starts to take votes from them. By 2014 the greens will be in real danger of missing the 5% threshold.

More countries will follow Canada in dropping out of the Kyoto protocol and National will start to come under pressure to drop the ridiculous carbon laws. - The greens will become hysterical at that suggestion.

I wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

Mike2   #3   11:14 am Dec 21 2011

Dave I think youv'e missed the biggest prediction.....the Governmnet will fall before the end of Feb 2012. Winston will be the King maker ... again. :-))

South Islander   #4   11:22 am Dec 21 2011

Agree with most predictions but they were rather tame.

11 and 12, the reviews of MMP and constitutional reform can recommend what they like, but whether anything will get put into practice is another thing.

16, there is no Sue Kedgley to spoil our Christmas either by telling us that eating strawberries is causing global warming.

I predict that David Shearer will become quite popular with the public but less popular with his own party.

I predict that Tolley will lose her Police portfolio and it will probably go to Banks.

I predict that Winston Peters will have at least 2 legal battles underway before the end of 2012.

I predict that the world will continue, pretty much as it has, for a few more centuries yet.

PS   #5   11:24 am Dec 21 2011

There will be a new ministry called the Entreaty Department for John Banks and Peter Dunne to make plaintive submissions to when the MMP recommendations are implemented.

Shamoo   #6   11:25 am Dec 21 2011

The voting public finally tire of John Key's embarrassing antics. Start of a popularity freefall ending in a large defeat at the next election.

PS   #7   11:34 am Dec 21 2011

I forgot to mention Hone-however he will be the president of the Treaty House.

Ben   #8   12:08 pm Dec 21 2011


This is supposed to be predictions, not your wish list. That could be a Tui billboard.

Graham   #9   12:35 pm Dec 21 2011

Winston Peters will reveal the content of the "cup of tea" tapes within 12 months.

Sailor Sam   #10   12:41 pm Dec 21 2011

1) Winston Peters will be the de-facto "Leader of the Opposition", he will be doing Shearer's dirty work and continually challenge Shearer's authority, until such time as "clean, green and clever" Shearer departs to join the Green Party and Labour comes crawling to Winston to ask hime to take over the Labour leadership. 2) Phil Goff will join John Banks as an ACT member, very belatedly realising that he should have joined Douglas, Prebble etc. and helped them to form the ACT party.

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