The popularity of PMs

Last updated 11:42 20/02/2012

TV3 broadcast its first political poll since the election and headlined it with declining faith in John Key. Now it is certainly correct that John Key's rating as preferred prime minister did decline - from 49% to 46%. However, some context to these ratings would be useful.

Preferred PM Ratings 1998 to 2012

This graph shows the Preferred PM ratings of the incumbent PMs since the beginning of the regular TV3 polls.

The dark blue line shows Jenny Shipley, who never got over 25% as preferred PM.

The red line is Helen Clark, who managed nine years as prime minister. At her peak her ratings reached today's "low" for John Key.

The more significant factor in the poll was the party vote figures. If an election occured on their results the Parliament would be:

  • Centre-Right - National 58, ACT 1, United 1 = 60
  • Centre-Left - Labour 36, Greens 16, NZ First 6, Mana 2 = 60
  • Centre - Maori 3

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power on this poll. I suspect this is a scenario we may see in a lot of future polls.

 

David Farrar is a centre-right blogger affiliated to the National Party. His disclosure statement is here.

52 comments
Post a comment
Freek Power   #1   11:47 am Feb 20 2012

"At her peak her ratings reached today's "low" for John Key:"

Are you saying, David, that HC never polled over 16%.

Nice spin, as usual from you, but not quiet accurate....

Freek Power   #2   11:48 am Feb 20 2012

That should read *46%

Joel   #3   11:58 am Feb 20 2012

That's pretty interesting. Of course preferred PM doesn't necessarily translate into winning an election, but it shows that John Key is still sky high compared to his predecessors. It must be true that his reputation has copped flak for some of those policies, but NZers still trust him more than any of the alternatives - David Shearer hit a massive 10% Preferred PM rating on 3 News. I don't know where the other ~30%, after Winston's ~5%, went. Maybe to Russel & Metiria?

AndrewK   #4   12:49 pm Feb 20 2012

PM popularity ratings are always a little dubious. Although there maybe a few people who base there voting habits on who they would prefer as PM, I don't think the majority get sucked into that US style personality cult.

Take the likes of George W. Bush after 9/11 his popularity rating was around 80%, by the time his disastrous regime ended he was struggling to get over a 20% popularity rating.

John Key will begin to plummet in popularity as his MPs natural coordinator class arrogance gets the better of speeches which have been carefully manicured for them.

joanna_jo   #5   12:50 pm Feb 20 2012

I hope you are going to show the garph again in 3years time I have a feeling Mr Key's black line will be so much lower.

joanna_jo   #6   12:56 pm Feb 20 2012

BTW David are you short of negative stuff to blog about?

Could I make a few suggestions?

Crafar Farms debacle

Breaking election rules debacle.

No Jobs debacle.

Children living below the povery line debacle

etc etc etc

WHERE IS JOHN I MISS HIS BLOGS.

bobberesford.com   #7   01:27 pm Feb 20 2012

As usual, or often enough, a blog which highlights John Key , while ignoring certain other realities.

Firstly, the Maori Party aren't Centre at all.....they are committed to racial separatism with effectively a separate Maori Nation operating within an NZ framework - separate fag, language, subtitles, law, prisons, social care, schools , etc etc.....and pandering to wealthy Iwi groups. That's not centre and it's very dangerous.

They are very much aligned with National and Labour would do well to leave them there , while attending to genuine Maori poverty and development issues, and work schemes - which they could be pushing, with Harawira. Though Mana is too radical overall and they don't need such an alliance.

The swing to a centre left co-alition, led by the more centrist/inclusive David Shearer , will be massive, and has started already. Watch as National's credibility and asset selling drags them further down.....and Key retires before the 2014 massacre, giving Domehead Joyce a chance.....and Bill ENglish the opportunity to sell even more assets to keep their money masters ( incl IMF )happy .

The IMF has already told Greece to sell everything, incl ports and the national lottery. They represent a world controlled by trans-national banks.

Eventually , even more of the Really dumb will work out that selling assets is a con. Selling the milk - not the farm and cows ought to be obvious ?

Richard   #8   01:27 pm Feb 20 2012

God you Labour supporters are pathetic. At least he always provides figures to back his argument up and is critical of National when justified (unlike John Pagani). If you are going to blindly write off everything he says then why read the article? Shows how small minded you really are.

The Other Nick   #9   01:57 pm Feb 20 2012

I'm thinking that you knocked this one out in a hurry as there isn't much to it.

Greg   #10   02:01 pm Feb 20 2012

That is today's blog? 150 words and a graph. How informative.

The reality is that the poll is important because Key will not like dropping in the polls. He thinks he is Mr. Popular and also seems to think people invite him to events because he is John Key, former corporate trader, not because he is PM.

The gloss will start to wear off because he has had his photo taken and shaken the hand of virtually everybody in NZ. I still love the photo op during the election campaign when he reached for a baby and the mother said she likes people and will go to anybody. She took one look at Key and burst out crying! If only the electorate was as smart as that infant.


Show 11-52 of 52 comments

Post comment


Required

Required. Will not be published.
Registration is not required to post a comment but if you , you will not have to enter your details each time you comment. Registered members also have access to extra features. Create an account now.


Maximum of 1750 characters (about 300 words)

I have read and accepted the terms and conditions
These comments are moderated. Your comment, if approved, may not appear immediately. Please direct any queries about comment moderation to the Opinion Editor at blogs@stuff.co.nz
Special offers

Featured Promotions

Sponsored Content