TV3 broadcast its first political poll since the election and headlined it with declining faith in John Key. Now it is certainly correct that John Key's rating as preferred prime minister did decline - from 49% to 46%. However, some context to these ratings would be useful.
This graph shows the Preferred PM ratings of the incumbent PMs since the beginning of the regular TV3 polls.
The dark blue line shows Jenny Shipley, who never got over 25% as preferred PM.
The red line is Helen Clark, who managed nine years as prime minister. At her peak her ratings reached today's "low" for John Key.
The more significant factor in the poll was the party vote figures. If an election occured on their results the Parliament would be:
- Centre-Right - National 58, ACT 1, United 1 = 60
- Centre-Left - Labour 36, Greens 16, NZ First 6, Mana 2 = 60
- Centre - Maori 3
The Maori Party would hold the balance of power on this poll. I suspect this is a scenario we may see in a lot of future polls.
David Farrar is a centre-right blogger affiliated to the National Party. His disclosure statement is here.
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