National still cosy in polls after tea break

TRACY WATKINS

National has soared over the teapot tape saga and strengthened its grip on the election in the final days of the campaign.

Today's Fairfax Media-Research International poll gives National a seemingly unassailable lead of 28 points over Labour, which is headed for a rout on Saturday if today's result of 26 per cent is repeated.

The big mover in today's poll is NZ First, which is now a whisker away from returning to Parliament at 4 per cent.

The Greens are also polling strongly, at 12 per cent.

The poll follows a torrid week on the campaign trail which saw Prime Minister John Key under pressure over legal manoeuvrings to keep secret a tape of a conversation with ACT candidate John Banks.

The next chapter in the saga plays out today when the High Court rules on cameraman Bradley Ambrose's claim that the conversation was not a private one. Mr Key's lawyer yesterday joined Solicitor-General David Collins, QC, in court arguing the tape should remain secret – but if their arguments fail, the tape could be released as early as today.

National insiders yesterday insisted there was nothing embarrassing in the tape, some details of which have already been leaked by NZ First leader Winston Peters, including a discussion over rolling ACT leader Don Brash and a reference to NZ First supporters as "dying out".

But if the court agrees it should be public there is potential for it to overshadow the campaign in the final days and any new revelations could still embarrass Mr Key.

The biggest winner from the teapot tape saga appears to have been Mr Peters, who has been given a leg up by the extra profile and publicity it offered him.

But National has emerged unbruised and, if anything, its support has risen on the back of the controversy, after Mr Key used it to drive a wedge between the public and the media over the issue. It is up 1.5 points on our last poll.

The National camp now fears voter apathy as the biggest danger heading into Saturday, with polls consistently showing National above 50 per cent – enough to govern alone.

Mr Key has spent the final days of the campaign warning voters of the consequence of NZ First holding the balance of power – saying any government hostage to Winston Peters could be brought down at "the click of his fingers".

Mr Peters says he won't offer either Labour or National confidence and supply, which means he will vote issue by issue.

The unknown factor is how the the large number of undecided voters – 15.6 per cent – will fall. One possibility is that because of National's extraordinarily high levels of support, the remaining undecided voters could be Left-leaning and still be trying to make up their mind between Labour, the Greens and NZ First.

But it would still take a big slide by National in the remaining few days to cause an upset.

On the campaign trail yesterday, Labour leader Phil Goff was refusing to give up, insisting that it was "never too late" to turn the polls around, despite the yawning gap with National.

"The last week of the campaign is the vital week of the campaign, that's when undecided voters are making up their minds," he said.

"The mood that I'm getting all around the place is that people are moving and that is benefiting Labour and we've got an excellent chance of a Labour-led Government from Saturday night."

When reminded that he has been banking on a boost for Labour throughout the campaign which has never arrived, Mr Goff responded: "Just keep watching."

He was also clearly hoping for a boost from Monday night's TV3 leaders' debate, which he was judged to have won by the "worm" tracking the response of a panel of viewers.

The poll, in which 1000 people were interviewed between November 17 and 21, has a margin of error of 3.1 per cent.

- Fairfax NZ