Conservatives within reach of Parliament: poll
The fallout from the Dirty Politics saga appears to have pushed the Conservative Party within reach of the next Parliament, a new political poll shows.
The latest 3News-Reid Research poll of 1000 voters, conducted in the week after the release of Nicky Hager's latest book, Dirty Politics, has the party on 4.6 per cent support - just shy of the five per cent needed to enter Parliament without an electorate seat.
The result was released by 3News after an apparent slip by the Conservative Party, which had tweeted its standing ahead of it being revealed on the 6pm news today.
The last Stuff.co.nz-Ipsos poll, published earlier this month ahead of the release of the book, had the party on 3.4 per cent.
TV3's political editor, Patrick Gower, said the pollsters had also asked for the public's reaction on whether Prime Minister John Key should stand down Justice Minister Judith Collins.
"Tonight's 3News-Reid Research poll shows Dirty Politics has given the political landscape a real good shake," he said.
"Not only does it have the Conservatives nearly at 5 per cent, there are also significant results for some of the other parties."
Gower said there had "really ... been some fallout" over the Dirty Politics saga.
"A lot of people have views on what John Key should do about Judith Collins." he said.
"He hasn't acted against her. We will give the public's view on that."
The Conservative Party's chances were dealt a significant blow after Prime Minister John Key ruled out an electoral accommodation.
But leader Colin Craig thrust it back into the spotlight by revealing the pending sale of the Lochinver Station to Chinese buyers Shanghai Pengxin last month.
In the 3News poll, National has slipped and would struggle to form a Government.
The poll puts National on 45 per cent, down 2.5 points, but Labour is also down 2.6, to 26.4 per cent.
The Greens and NZ First are the winners - and on the 3News poll NZ First leader Winston Peters would hold the balance of power after a jump to 6.3 per cent.
None of the other parties has moved much since the last 3 News poll, with Internet-Mana the best of the rest on 2.1 per cent.
Even if its allies ACT, the Maori Party and United Future are returned to Parliament in the same numbers as the last term, National would need to do a deal with NZ First to win.
Peters could also do a deal with Labour and the Greens but has balked at any deal that would put him in the same government as either the Maori Party or Internet-Mana.