Labour is predicted to win the Te Tai Hauauru electorate at this year's election, according to traders on iPredict.
The website has this month started offering contracts on individual electorates, including Te Tai Hauauru, where Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia is stepping down.
Labour has named Adrian Rurawhe, a great-grandson of the founder of the Ratana movement and a former adviser to Tariana Turia, as its candidate for the Maori electorate. Current Turia staffer Chris McKenzie is standing for the Maori Party while Jack McDonald is the Green Party's candidate.
The iPredict site is a stockmarket where, instead of betting on the performance of companies, investors bet on the outcome of news events.
The Maori Party was initially leading in Te Tai Hauauru when the seat was added to the iPredict market last week.
However, by yesterday, traders had driven up the price on Labour winning the seat to $0.8022 per share, which equates to an 80.2 per cent likelihood that Mr Rurawhe will win.
The Maori Party's Mr McKenzie had a 19.8 per cent chance of winning and the Greens' candidate just 0.1 per cent.
iPredict was yet to launch contracts for other seats in Manawatu such as Palmerston North and Rangitikei but these were expected to be available in coming weeks.
- © Fairfax NZ News