Nelson faces scary scenario

BY NAOMI ARNOLD

The vexed question of climate change has been called the biggest challenge facing our generation.

A new report released this week, Effects of Climate Change on the Nelson-Tasman Region, outlines the impact of it on Nelson in a century, and makes for ugly reading. It applies current scientific knowledge to Nelson-Tasman and says that unless there are significant reductions in global emissions by 2020, much of central Nelson as we know it today will be lost.

All Nelson-Tasman's major employers and iconic areas will be underwater by 2110: the port, airport, Civic House, the library, supermarkets, the medium-density fibreboard plant, Rabbit Island, the Boulder Bank and Farewell Spit.

The new Richmond West development will be drowned, according to the report written by the Nelson-based Cawthron Institute and commissioned by Nelson solar company SolarCity.

Cawthron Institute sustainable business group manager Jim Sinner freely acknowledges that it is a "worst-case scenario" prediction.

While there may be some beneficial effects of climate change, the report deliberately focused on the likely adverse effects because they "far outweighed" any positives, he says.

The report estimated the effects of a "business as usual" approach to global emissions, with countries taking only limited action. It outlines the environmental and economic changes the region can expect from a 2.5 degrees Celsius rise in temperature and a 1-metre to 1.9m rise in sea levels.

The region's billion-dollar moneymakers – horticulture, agriculture, seafood, forestry and tourism – would all suffer. As well as productive land lost to the sea, changes in temperature, rainfall and wind patterns would affect existing crops and animals and potentially make them vulnerable to introduced pests and diseases.

Our tourism jewels in the Abel Tasman would also be affected by worse weather and higher sea levels.

The report bases its projections on new research by climate scientists, including Victoria University professor and Antarctic Research Centre director Tim Naish, some of which is soon to be published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Dr Naish says we should plan for a sea-level rise of 1.9m globally by 2100. The new numbers reflect data included from Antarctica and Greenland. That data was not certain enough before to include in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) forecast, on which current government estimates of sea-level rise (between 0.5m and 0.8m) are based.

"Even at the time of the AR4 report, we knew there was new satellite data that confirmed more accurately what was happening with the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets," Dr Naish says.

"That's all coming out now. The bottom line is that the rate of ice loss has doubled from Greenland and Antarctica in the last five years."

He says as a general estimate "all the science is suggesting one metre, plus or minus half a metre".

Niwa chief climate scientist David Wratt agrees, saying "one certainly couldn't rule out a metre of sea-level rise and some people are suggesting more than that".

All of which begs the question: what are Nelson regional planners doing in response?

Nelson City Council chief executive Keith Marshall says it is a "damned if you do and damned if you don't" situation for councils and the Government.

Taxpayers did not want to spend millions of dollars on mitigation for something that had not happened, yet action needed to start as soon as possible.

"If [the Government] is overcautious, they'll get a public backlash from the Y2K effect," he said.

However, there had been a shift in the past few years, and politically, there was now "more of a will to do something about it than there perhaps was five years ago".

Regulation to encourage sustainability and reduce emissions was a must, and there were some "really simple" examples, particularly around energy use.

"I would require compulsory insulation standards for the home.

"What's wrong with making a minimum standard to use solar to heat your hot water? What would be wrong with making a minimum regulation standard to make sure you had a certain amount of solid concrete core?

"If you don't regulate, it won't happen."

He said the biggest puzzle for the city council would be planning infrastructure, such as roading, water and sewage.

But its response could not go outside the Ministry for the Environment's National Environment Standards, which will decide council planning timeframes out to 2090. Public consultation on that document will start in early 2010 and Mr Marshall expected it to be the main guide for regional planning.

The most up-to-date research on sea-level rise, incorporating all the latest science, will be available after the next IPCC expert meeting in June next year, which will produce the Fifth Assessment Report to supersede the current AR4.

At the Cawthron report's launch this week, SolarCity chief executive Andrew Booth said there had been a lot of talk about how much reducing emissions was going to cost New Zealand in order to meet its international commitments.

"This report is about what it's going to cost us if we don't," he said.

He, Mr Sinner and Mr Marshall expect Nelson to lead the country in becoming more sustainable, and other councils are already looking to ours for clues on how to implement solar power schemes.

Mr Booth obviously cares deeply about the impact of climate change. His company paid about $20,000 for the Cawthron report.

The city council's $9m Solar Saver Scheme, which will subsidise solar hot-water heating systems in homes, includes Mr Booth's SolarCity as one of several providers.

There has been such a high level of interest in the Solar Saver Scheme initially that the council had to hold a ballot to choose the first 200 households that could opt to take up a solar hot-water installation.

Regardless of where the high-tide mark will be in 100 years, for Nelson Tasman businesses, a focus on sustainability in the future will clearly prove to be a smart idea.

- © Fairfax NZ News