Smith leads Street by 36 points: poll

Nelson Mail

Nelson Mail

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Nick Smith is a shoo-in to win a fifth term as Nelson's MP but the battle for the all-important party vote is too close to call, according to a Nelson Mail political opinion poll.

In the electorate race, Dr Smith holds an unassailable 36-percentage point lead over Labour's Maryan Street going into the last stretch of the campaign. But his National Party narrowly trails Labour in the party vote, which decides the make-up of Parliament.

Labour's 3 percent lead is flimsy, within the 4.4 percent margin of error of the poll and well capable of being overturned by November 8, election day.

Our poll of 500 people - 300 women and 200 men - was conducted on Monday evening using standard polling methodology.

It found Dr Smith was more than twice as popular as Ms Street among those who had made up their minds whom to vote for.

Among the other candidates, only the Green Party's Diana Mellor registered more than a handful of votes, while just over 20 percent of people polled were yet to decide whom to support.

The size of Dr Smith's lead will be a surprise to Labour.

The party regards Ms Street, the Housing and ACC Minister and a former party president, as its strongest Nelson candidate in years.

However, her level of support in our poll is little better than what Jen McCutcheon achieved for Labour in 2005.

Once again, the energetic and high-profile Dr Smith, who has never been run close since winning Nelson in 1996, even when Labour was at its peak in 2002, is dominating his rival, showing his broad appeal and ability to win over people from across the political divide.

He polled well with men and was streets ahead in Richmond, Tahunanui and Atawhai, while even in the Labour stronghold of the central city, he did better than Ms Street, who is struggling even to attract more women to her cause.

However, Labour will retain some hope of maintaining its record under MMP of never having lost the party vote in Nelson to National. Its edge is minimal but at the last election, it repelled a concerted National campaign for two ticks.

While the task is tougher this time, given that Labour is seeking a fourth straight term, our poll shows Labour doing well among women and in Stoke and Atawhai.  National, on the other hand, is stronger among men and in Richmond and Tahunanui, but weak in the central city.

Of the minor parties, the Greens, who have always done well in Nelson, topped 10 percent, largely on the back of a strong showing in the central city, while New Zealand First at 2.5 percent leads the others.

Dr Smith, an MP since 1990, said he was ``pleasantly surprised'' and humbled by his big personal lead over Ms Street but the real contest was for the party vote.

While it was ``neck and neck'', he was conscious that ``Labour pipped us at the post'' in 2005. But National had learned its lesson, and its advertising budget and campaign strategy for the rest of the campaign was strongly centred on maximising its party support. This included holding 12 street corner meetings this weekend, a pot luck dinner with its ethnic candidates to emphasis that National was a broad-based party, and a meeting on education policy.

Dr Smith said voters were being given the clear message that he could do far more for Nelson around the cabinet table than from the opposition benches.

Ms Street took heart that Labour's party vote was ``holding up'' at its 2005 level, saying this was where its focus would be until election day. ``We will be pulling out all stops.''

This included getting ``much more personal'' with voters.

Her bid to unseat Dr Smith was a longer-term objective, she said. ``I've been working on the basis that if I don't defeat Nick this time, I will defeat him next time round.''

She expressed concern that the Green Party was ``cannibalising'' some of Labour's party support, saying that while she wanted to see the Greens get over the 5 percent threshold, too much support for them risked Labour not getting enough votes to form a government.

Green candidate Diana Mellor was ``absolutely delighted'' with her party's showing and was optimistic of it finishing well above the 7.7 percent it won in Nelson in 2005. She said that at over 10 percent, it would return some excellent candidates, including West Coast-Tasman's Kevin Hague and possibly former Nelson-based MP Mike Ward, number 14 on the party list.

She made ``no apologies'' for trying to boost party votes, even at the expense of Labour, saying it would be ``even more crucial to get Green people into Parliament if National becomes the government'', to keep the environmental flag flying.

TOMORROW: Who's ahead in West Coast-Tasman.

- © Fairfax NZ News