Nats put heat on O'Connor

Nelson Mail

Nelson Mail

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Damien O'Connor is hanging on - just - the face of a strong National Party challenge for his West Coast-Tasman seat, according to a Nelson Mail political opinion poll.

But it is desperately close between the long-standing Labour MP and cabinet minister and his National rival, list MP Chris Auchinvole - just over 3 percent, less than the margin of error of this poll.

It is half the 6.8 percent margin that Mr O'Connor beat Mr Auchinvole by in 2005, suggesting that the race will go down to the wire on November 8.

The contest for the party vote is much clearer - National holds a comfortable 10.8 percent lead over Labour among the 500 people, 283 women and 217 men, we polled throughout the electorate on Monday evening. This is well up on the 2.4 percent edge National achieved in 2005.

National's support is more widely based across the vast electorate, one of the biggest in the country. It is stronger from Greymouth south to Haast and in nearly all the rural areas from Wakefield through to Murchison. Only in Westport - a traditional Labour power base - Motueka and Golden Bay does Labour lead.

Golden Bay has lived up to its reputation for environmentalism by again providing the Green Party with its highest level of support - 27 percent - where it rivals Labour and shades National.

This pocket of votes boosts the Greens to more than 13 percent of the party vote across the electorate, ahead of the 9.2 percent they scored in 2005.

Mr O'Connor's hopes of survival and a fifth term as MP rest on winning West Coast-Tasman, as he is too far down Labour's party list to realistically get back into Parliament that way.

On the other hand, Mr Auchinvole could return to Parliament via National's list even if he loses to Mr O'Connor, provided National retains its current healthy lead in the polls. But after slashing Mr O'Connor's majority to 2154 votes in 2005, the 63-year-old Greymouth businessman is confident that after three years as a list MP, he is better organised and more widely known throughout the electorate and can win this time.

To do so, he will have to do better in the Tasman half of the electorate, where our poll has the personally popular Mr O'Connor holding a crucial 7 percent lead, due mainly to good support in Motueka, Golden Bay and Mapua.

It is a different story on the Coast, with Mr Auchinvole ahead everywhere except in and around Westport,  Mr O'Connor's home turf.

At 50 and already an MP for 15 years, Mr O'Connor - the Minister of Tourism and Rural Affairs - conceded that he was facing his toughest fight yet, against an experienced candidate in an electorate that is a challenge to cover because of its length.

He said that given that he was a busy cabinet minister who was forced to spend a lot of time away from home, he was pleased with the way his electorate support was holding steady, and remained confident of holding on. ``The feedback has been quite positive.'' 

He was disappointed with Labour's showing in the poll, ``given the economic prosperity the electorate has enjoyed under a Labour government'', but said a lot of voters had yet to make up their minds and were seeking more information on policies and options.

``The important thing is that people vote on the day. We are taking nothing for granted and will be working right up to next Saturday to contact as many constituents as possible.''

 Mr Auchinvole said the poll result gave him every hope that he could win the seat.

``We took 5000 votes off Mr O'Connor last time, and now it looks as though  it could go either way.''

He said he would be increasing his exposure in Tasman in a bid to raise his profile there, while trying to glean more votes from the Coast.

While health care, particularly the limited range of hospital services, and the economic wellbeing of major industries such as farming and mining were the top issues worrying voters on the Coast, Mr Auchinvole said the performance of the party leaders over the last eight days of the campaign was likely to have the most effect on voting trends.

He was ``very pleased'' with National's lead in the party vote, saying it was close to the 45 percent figure it had targeted.

Green Party candidate Kevin Hague said its party vote support of over 13 percent in the poll was ``a great boost'' to his campaign, and he was hopeful that this could be pushed higher, as the party planned a strong close to its campaign. This included a leaflet drop to every household in the electorate, speaking engagements at numerous meetings and policy announcements.

Mr Hague was critical of major media outlets for focusing on the ``John and Helen show'' and ``missing the point that we have an MMP system'', saying it  meant minor parties risked getting squeezed out.

While 6 percent of the party vote would get him into Parliament, at No 7 on the Green list, he said he was aiming for between 10 and 15 percent by doubling the Greens' support on the Coast, maintaining the party's strong Golden  Bay presence and building on the backing it had in and around Motueka.

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