Nelson well placed to bounce, summit told

There was some good news among the bad for more than 200 local business representatives who attended Nelson's first economic summit yesterday.

The message from two economists, Nelson's new cabinet minister and a local business expert was that 2009 is going to be tough.

The Reserve Bank forecasts gross domestic product will continue to fall through next year before rising slowly towards the end of 2009.

Weakening trading-partner economies will have a considerably negative impact on the export market and financial market dysfunction means credit will continue to be difficult to come by.

The good news, however, was that Nelson will be well placed to bounce back after things start to stabilise.

Manager of forecasting for the Reserve Bank Tim Hampton, senior research economist for Westpac Dominick Stephens, Nelson MP and Government minister Dr Nick Smith and locally based business expert John McCliskie all gave their opinions about how the global economic crisis might affect things close to home.

The initiative was spearheaded by the Nelson economic development agency with help from the ministry of social development.

Dr Smith believed Nelson's reliance on aquaculture and tourism put the region in a positive position for the future.

"There are more people that eat farmed fish than wild fish in the world now. It is a great asset that the Nelson region has and one that needs to be harnessed."

The Nelson region relies heavily on primary production and small to medium-sized businesses.

John McCliskie believed that although those businesses would feel the pinch as export markets became even tougher, when commodity prices rose, Nelson would be among the first to benefit.

He said the bad times should not make business owners freeze in the headlights.

"Don't assume the best. You need to need to pursue it and be bold. Doing nothing is the worst outcome. Focus on making sure you have the freedom to continue employing people and taking risks."

Westpac economist Dominick Stephens said the Nelson housing market would face the same troubles as the national market, even though it had broken that trend in recent years.

In 2003, there was a large spike in house prices that was well above the national average but had since tailed off.

"Even though there was that bubble, if I had bought a house in Nelson in 2000, it would be worth the exact same price as a house bought anywhere else in New Zealand. So as far as Nelson's housing market is concerned, there isn't much news. You will be subjected to the same stresses as everybody else."

Mr McCliskie thought it was encouraging to have such a large turnout for the summit.

"It suggests to me you are not here for the love of it, but you have a real concern about what lies ahead."

- © Fairfax NZ News