Here we go again

It is almost as predictable as changing seasons that at about this time of year there will be warnings of coming power shortages, the Nelson Mail said in an editorial on Tuesday.

In wetter years they are more muted, in dry years like this one, they are louder. They usually don't amount to much. However, with large chunks of New Zealand gripped by a drought that heavy rain over the weekend has helped to alleviate, but not brought to an end, the situation this year looks serious. Experts are suggesting that this winter could be as bad as 2001, when cuts in power use had to be made, or even 1992, when there were blackouts.

Nature will decide - if there is a lot more rain, as at least one prominent forecaster is tentatively suggesting could be the case, then there will be another reprieve. If not, a repeat of 1992 would be more problematic now, because of the greater reliance on electricity in everyday life - think computers - and expanded industry. Whatever the outcome this year, the fact that the warnings have gone out again highlights New Zealand's vulnerability and the lack of a convincing plan to remove this annual electricity supply uncertainty.

This year's early woes are worsened by the Cook Strait power link being reduced to one working cable, which erodes the ability to get power from the southern hydro schemes to the North Island; the permanent closure of the New Plymouth power station because of problems with asbestos and a reduction in capacity at the Huntly station caused by cooling difficulties.

But the underlying problem is a supply insufficient to guarantee meeting the nation's needs at times of peak demand. There simply isn't enough buffering built into the supply network and attempts to promote relatively low-impact hydro schemes and alternative sources such as wind farms invariably meet determined opposition from environmental groups.

The Government, concerned about the effect of CO2 emissions on global warming, is opposed to the development of new thermal stations burning coal or gas and the idea of nuclear power generation, while becoming more acceptable in many other countries, provokes horror when raised here.

New Zealand is an international leader in renewable energy. About two-thirds of the country's requirements comes from hydro generation, geothermal stations and wind power. Plans for a new geothermal station are advanced and wind farms are gaining a greater toehold. Even so, this year, as in other recent years, the feeling is that the national energy strategy is more about providing enough power to scrape by on than having a robust supply that can readily cope with a fluctuating climate.

At the least, there should be a government policy allowing thermal generation to smooth out peaks in demand until - and if - sufficient alternative sources are developed. To do otherwise is to risk the nation's wellbeing.