The east of the South Island is expected to have a drier winter than usual, while there is also a chance rainfall could be down in Nelson and Marlborough and the west of the North Island.
In its seasonal climate outlook for June to August, published today, Niwa's national climate centre said winter temperatures were likely to be near average for the whole country.
Frosts and snowfalls, typical of winter, would occur from time to time.
Winter rainfall totals were likely to be below normal in the eastern South Island, while being normal or below normal for Nelson and Marlborough, as well as for the west and north of the North Island. Near normal winter rainfall totals were predicted for the South Island West Coast, and the eastern North Island.
Sea temperatures around New Zealand were likely to be slightly above normal, the outlook said.
Circulation patterns were likely to be close to the seasonal norm, with winter being the time of year when weather features were typically fast-moving and relatively active.
Conditions in the tropical Pacific were neutral - neither La Nina nor El Nino. That situation should persist through much of winter, but it was possible El Nino would develop by spring.
River flows were predicted to be below normal for the north and east of the South Island, near normal in the eastern North Island, and normal or below normal elsewhere.
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