Facts become unreliable

OPINION: I stopped in mid-stride, writes Joe Bennett this week.

I stared. The fawn slacks, the bland shirt, the conventional haircut, the position slap bang in the middle of the road – it could only be him. Fleas of excitement did cartwheels in my heart.

"Excuse me," I said. My voice squeaked like a shoe-sole on linoleum. "You're not, by any chance?"

"I am," he said.

"Oh wondrous day," I exclaimed, thrusting out my hand, "my search is over. Here I am at last standing face to face with that creature of myth and legend, The Man in the Street."

His handshake was so neutral that a second later I wondered whether it had happened.

"Now," I said, "do you mind if I ask you"

"A few questions?" he said. "Go ahead. What's the subject today? Tax cuts? Weather presenters' love lives? The amusing Mr Woods?"

"Science," I said. "What does The Man in the Street think about ?"

"Call me the MITS," he said, "it's what most people do. And I am defined by what most people do. Now, I hope you're not seeking specific scientific knowledge. The MITS is a bit thin on that."

"Oh no," I said, "just the usual generalised guff. But do you mind if we move out of the middle of the road?"

"Sorry," said the MITS, "it's where I live. But it's quite safe. You just have to go with the flow. Now what was that question again?"

"How do you feel about science?"

"I love it," said the MITS, "I don't pretend to understand it, but I know it's made my life a lot easier, what with washing machines and cars and medical expertise and computers and so on, Because of science I'm more prosperous and longer-lived than any of the thousands of Men in the Street who've preceded me. So yes, the MITS likes science."

"And scientists?"

"Ah," said the MITS, "that's different. Aren't they the ones who sat at the front in school and wore glasses and didn't play for the first 15? I mean, you wouldn't want your daughter to marry one, would you?"

"Or your son."

"Indeed, now you point it out. I'm afraid the MITS is a bit backward in his sexual stereotypes. By definition he's a generation or so behind contemporary thinking, but he'll probably come round eventually.'

"But do you trust scientists?" I said.

The MITS scratched the back of his putty-coloured neck. "You're asking me to think for myself there and that's not my job. I'm just a conduit for received opinion. But I think I'd have to say that yes I do trust scientists, because they generally get things right. I mean, they sort of test things against evidence, don't they, rather than just asserting stuff to be true because they want it to be true, like the Pope does or a gypsy fortune teller.'

"Yes," I said, "they do."

"I hope this isn't leading into deep intellectual water," said the MITS. "I'm not a great swimmer. More of a doggy-paddler really."

"We'll go gently," I said, "just tell me when you feel out of your depth. Now, if 98 per cent of scientists said, after weighing the evidence, that something disastrous would happen tomorrow unless you did something today, would you do something?"

"I'd be a fool not to," said the MITS.

"And if they said that something disastrous would happen next month unless you did something today, would you do something?"

"I'd be a fool not to," said the MITS.

"And if they said that something disastrous would happen 50 years from now unless you did something today, would you do something?"

"Mmmm" said the MITS. It was clear that looking so far into the future bothered him. "Over 98 per cent of scientists, you say. Yes, I suppose so, reluctantly, yes, I would. After all, the scientists are generally right, aren't they?'

"Yes," I said, "Science is simply the business of predicting the future based on evidence on the past. In its developed form it is the distinguishing trait of the human species, though not a trait, it has to be said, exhibited by all members of the species, or indeed most of them. Anyway, let me ask you one more question. If 98 per cent of the world's climate scientists agreed that we were bound for disastrous climatic change 50 years from now unless you changed the way you live and gave up a few of your privileges right now, would you do so?'

"Now that," said the MITS, "is a completely different question. What about the other 2 per cent of scientists? You've got to take everything into account before you make drastic decisions. Especially on a lovely day like this in the middle of the road. Oh look, here comes an old gypsy fortune teller. Or perhaps it's the Pope. It's hard to tell. Either way I wonder what they've got to say on the matter."

» Joe Bennett is an English-born travel writer and columnist who lives in New Zealand with dogs. His columns are syndicated in newspapers throughout New Zealand.

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