Here comes the sun! (No, we're not joking)

BY MARK HOTTON

First the rugby gods smiled on Southland, now it's the turn of the weather ones.

Brace yourselves: spring – and possibly summer – have the potential to be be quite nice, and match the drier-than-average winter the province has enjoyed.

Niwa climate scientist Georgina Griffiths said New Zealand was in a La Nina climate cycle, which brought more winds from the north and east, meaning warmer and drier conditions in Southland.

While there might be an occasional southerly spell, such as the one that passed through the province yesterday, generally the weather should be better.

Should.

The La Nina cycle was the reason the winter in Southland was noticeably drier than usual.

Environment Southland environmental database administrator Garry Telford said rainfall in winter (June, July and August) was noticeably down across most of Southland, with a Heddon Bush site recording 55 per cent of its winter average.

Sites in the south and west of the province were down more than other areas – several recorded about 60 per cent of the average – which reflected the La Nina cycle, he said.

"It wasn't an exceptionally dry winter and we have had drier winters, but it was much drier than average."

New Zealand Aluminium Smelters' figures reveal the winter rainfall total at Tiwai Point was 131mm, well below the average of 277mm, and the lowest since records began in 1970. In January, 150mm fell at the Tiwai Point recording site.

Ms Griffiths said Southlanders had enjoyed some of the best winter weather in New Zealand, with the La Nina cycle bringing more rain and easterly winds to the east coast of both islands and less southerly storms.

The indication was temperatures in Southland would be in the near or above average range during spring, while seasonal rainfall and soil moisture levels were likely to be near normal.

La Nina was considered moderate at the moment, but the system was showing signs of intensifying, which could mean a good summer for the south, she said.

The seasonal prediction did not rule out bad weather hitting Southland at times and there would inevitably be wet and cold days, but the general trend would be for warmer and more settled weather, Ms Griffiths said.

A mild spring with warm temperatures would be welcomed by farmers looking for good growing conditions, without the constant bombardment from icy southerly fronts.

Summer could be dry and with above average temperatures if the La Nina continued to strengthen as it appeared to be doing, she said.

An El Nino system was in place last year, which explained the poor weather – including a cold and wet Christmas Day – during spring and summer.

The presence of El Nino or La Nina conditions and sea surface temperatures were useful indicators of likely climate conditions for a season.

- © Fairfax NZ News