NBL - how the playoffs shape up

The Australian NBL round-robin is in the home straight, with the New Zeakand Breakers in the midst of the playoff picture. But where will they finish?

Here's the rundown as the jockeying for final position plays out over the next fortnight.

South Dragons (19-7): Attempting to be the first ever team to go from wooden spooners to a top-placed finish the next year. Only two teams had ever previously made the playoffs after a last placed finish the previous year with Illawarra finishing sixth in 1998 and Brisbane is the only other team to actually win a playoff game the following year, 2004, when they made it to the Semi-Finals but went down to Brian Goorjian's Sydney Kings 0-2.

Best scenario: Will finish top if they win all their games. Have a 2-1 advantage over second-placed Melbourne and a 31-point spread with one game to play, so even if they drop that game by less than that margin, three other wins will still guarantee top place. One more win in their last four will guarantee them a place in the top two and a first round bye in the playoffs.

Worst scenario: Can't finish lower than third even if they don't win another match.  Already have head-to-head on the Breakers (2-1) and would be warm favourites to maintain advantage over Tigers.

South's run home:
vs Adelaide (2-0)
at Townsville (1-2)
vs Melbourne(2-1)
at Cairns (2-1)

Melbourne Tigers (19-8): Have finished second on the ladder the last three years straight but have captured two Championships over that span. Melbourne have qualified for the finals in 20 of the last 21 seasons, missing out in just 2001.

Best scenario: Just one more win - against any opponent - will give them enough wins to lock in a top two finish as they have head-to-head on the Breakers (2-2) with a 14-point advantage. Even if they can beat the Dragons this week, anything less than a 32-point margin will mean they need the Dragons to split their last four games if they want to pinch first place from them.

Worst scenario:  Can still drop back to third if they lose their last three games but will also need the Breakers to win all four of their remaining games for that to happen.

Melbourne's run home:
at South (1-2)
vs Townsville (1-1)
at Perth (2-1)

New Zealand Breakers (16-10): What were their New Year's resolutions? Since the first of January's ticked over, the Breakers have won just once from their past seven games and have now lost any chance of finishing on top - a position they were in as recently as Round 11. New Zealand were in the top two places on the ladder every week from the opening round until week 19 this season.

Best scenario: First place is out of reach and second would take some crazy results to swing in their favour. Like the Breakers winning all four games and either the Dragons or Tigers to lose all of their remaining games.  A third or fourth placed finish will guarantee the first ever NBL playoff game will be played in Auckland.  If they can win any two of their last four games, they cannot finish lower than third, as only Townsville could possibly match them on 18 wins and the Breakers already hold the head-to-head advantage over them.

Worst scenario:  Is sure to see some playoff action for the second straight year but can still drop as far down as 6^th if their poor run of form continues. With matches to play against 8^th, 6^th, 9^th and 7^th ranked teams going into this round, the Breakers destiny is in their own hands.

New Zealand's run home:
at Wollongong (1-1)
at Adelaide (1-1)
vs Cairns (1-2)
at Sydney (1-2)

Perth Wildcats (15-13): This will be 23^rd straight year that Perth has qualified for the post season. This year they have struggled to put a winning run together with three consecutive victories their best streak. Only in three other previous seasons since they first made the finals have they not recorded at least a four-game winning run at some stage through the year, (in 1994, 1999 and 2004) and it must be noted that in those post-seasons, Perth were quickly eliminated without winning a finals game in any of those years.

Best scenario: The Wildcats can get as high as third but can only finish fourth if the Breakers win one of their last four games.  Two more wins by Perth will still not guarantee a top four finish if the Crocs win their last two. The Wildcats have head-to-head on both Townsville and Adelaide, which puts them in a strong position.

Worst scenario:  Two home losses can see them fall to sixth but they have already qualified for the playoffs for a league record 23^rd straight time.  If the results in the last two rounds went to the higher placed team on the ladder at present, the top six would finish this way: South (23-7), Melbourne (21-9), New Zealand (20-10), Perth (16-14), Townsville (16-14), Adelaide (15-15).

Perth's run home:
vs Sydney (2-1)
vs Melbourne (1-2)

Townsville Crocodiles (16-12): Have two tough challenges, finishing with a home game against the Dragons and an away game at the Tigers. However they are the only team in the NBL this year to have two wins against the Dragons and have also knocked off Melbourne.

Best scenario: Win their last two games and they will guarantee themselves a home knock-out final. Win one and anything could happen. Could they lose twice and still host a home final? Yes, but it would take both Perth and Adelaide to have horrible finishes also.

Worst scenario: Lose both remaining games and the Crocs are travelling to stay alive in the playoffs. Townsville have lost the head-to-head on all the teams they could tie with so they need to avoid tying with New Zealand, Perth or Adelaide.

Townsville's run home:
vs South (2-1)
at Melbourne (1-1)

Adelaide 36ers (14-13): The 36ers are the only top six team that is yet to absolutely lock in a playoff place but it would take four losses combined with four wins by the Taipans for them to miss the post-season. The Sixers should soon find themselves back in the finals after two years of sitting out - a situation they last were in back in 1982/83. It is hard to believe that Adelaide has not won a playoff game since 2003.

Best scenario: The Sixers could finish as high as third but that would take some major hiccups from their competitors. They have the head-to-head on Townsville and their result against the Breakers will be decided on Saturday, which is the only game played in the final two rounds between teams ranked between three and sixth.

Worst scenario:  Could miss out still but odds of that happening would be astronomical. A knock out final on the road would be difficult as they have a 3-10 record away from home but two wins have come at Melbourne and New Zealand.

Adelaide's run home:
at South (0-2)
vs New Zealand (1-1)
at Wollongong (2-1)

Cairns Taipans (10-16): One more slip up for the Taipans and its curtains for season 2009. Cairns did win five of their first seven games but slumped to win just two of their next 14 and have won three of their last five.

Best scenario: Win all four of their remaining games and Adelaide lose all four of theirs. That is the only way the top six teams can be altered.

Worst scenario:  Cairns can finish as low as ninth if Wollongong get one more win than the Taipans on the run home, as they have a 3-0 head to head advantage on them.

On holidays: Sydney (11-16), Wollongong Hawks (9-18) Gold Coast Blaze (6-22)

- source material: NBL

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