Breakers facing play-off mission impossible

BY MARC HINTON

The NZ Breakers are now officially a long shot to make the Australian NBL playoffs – regardless of whether they finish the regular season on a six-game winning streak.

The weekend's round of matches across the ditch were not kind to the New Zealand club, and that's putting it mildly. It was pretty much worst case scenario as the Gold Coast Blaze (at home to Perth), the Wollongong Hawks (at home to the Blaze the next night) and Townsville Crocodiles (at home to Cairns) all picked up vital wins that solidified their playoff prospects.

That's put the 13-13 Breakers somewhere between a rock and a hard place as they face the unenviable scenario of their fate being out of their own hands.

In essence they need one of the three teams ahead of them on the table – they can't catch the fourth, the Perth Wildcats – to lose both of their remaining matches. Anything less and the Breakers are toast.

For Kirk Penney and his men to make the post-season they first have to take care of their side of the bargain and win their remaining two matches – against the Gold Coast Blaze at the NSEC on Thursday night and then at second-from bottom Cairns on Saturday night.

Then – and here's the hard part -- they need either Townsville, Gold Coast or Wollongong to implode.

It's possible, but if you were a betting man you wouldn't be putting the mortgage on the Breakers sneaking in.

And, really, it's hard to escape the feeling that not only are the Breakers going to be haunted by their own shocking inability to hold significant fourth-quarter leads – they coughed up at least a half-dozen matches this season when they held double-digit advantages over the run home – but by that horror run of four straight home defeats.

In other words, the Kiwi club have been their own worst enemies in 2009-10.

As impressive as they've been of late, scoring big wins on the road at Gold Coast and Townsville, and hammering Adelaide and Wollongong at home, the Breakers have been shocking under-achievers this season, given the talent at their disposal.

Still, fingers will be crossed out at Atlas Place that the fates are kind to them.

Their best chance could well be catching the Gold Coast because at least they play a part in half of that equation. So, if the Breakers roll the Blaze on Thursday night they then would need the Coasters to fall over at the Melbourne Tigers on Saturday night – a distinct possibility.

However even that scenario would require the New Zealand club to beat the Blaze by more than seven points on Thursday, and thus take the season split which would give them the tie-breaker in the event of the two clubs finishing even (on 15-13).

But if the Blaze either win in Auckland or lose by less then seven, they're safe. Same if they win in Melbourne.

Wollongong, just one win north of the Breakers, can also be overhauled. But again only if they drop both of their remaining matches - at home to the Melbourne Tigers on Friday and then away to Adelaide a night later.

One win would also make them safe because they hold the season split on the Breakers courtesy of three victories earlier in the season – all of which saw them haul in significant fourth-quarter deficits against the Kiwis.

The Breakers smashed the HawKs by 28 points last Thursday, but must be kicking themselves that they coughed up those winning positions earlier in the year – they led by six at three-quarter time in a 65-76 defeat at the Gong; by eight with less than five minutes left in a 91-93 loss at home; and again by seven with one period left in a 78-83 road setback.

Townsville is the other team the Breakers can catch, but only if the Crocs lose Wednesday's home match against the undermanned Adelaide 36ers – not likely – and then drop their Sunday closer at ladder leaders the Perth Wildcats.

All in all it's a gloomy picture for the Breakers who are on a four-game winning streak and playing their best basketball of the season.

The thing is in sport they say you make your own luck. And right now the Breakers are looking like they might pay a heavy price for their own shortcomings through the middle and latter part of the season. Their disastrous 89-94 loss to the Melbourne Tigers on JanUARY 14 at home, where they led by 17 in the final quarter, also looks like it is going to bite them on the bum in a big way.

Meanwhile Thursday's home finale against the Blaze will also be NBL iron man Tony Ronaldson's NSEC farewell, which should ratchet up the emotion factor.

Ronaldson has announced that this, his 20th season in the league, will be his final. He has played a record 663 NBL matches, 87 of them for the Breakers.

The ironic thing is that during Ronaldson's career he's never missed out on the playoffs. Right now the Bear needs a near miracle to keep that streak alive.

NBL PLAY-OFF PICTURE

Perth Wildcats 16-11. Remaining games: v Tonsville (h). Best finish: 17-11. Verdict: safe.

Townsville 15-11. Remaining games: v Adelaide (h), v Perth (a). Best finish: 17-11. Verdict: Should seal the deal at home against Adelaide.

Gold Coast 15-11. Remaining games: v Breakers (a), v Melbourne (a). Best finish: 17-11. Verdict: Still vulnerable. Would not want to travel to Melbourne needing to win.

Wollongong 14-12. Remaining games: v Melbourne (h), v Adelaide (a). Best finish: 16-12. Verdict: May need to win at Adelaide, but well capable of that.

Breakers 13-13. Remaining games: v Gold Coast (h), v Cairns (a). Best finish: 15-13. Verdict: Hard to see everything working out. Prayer time!

- © Fairfax NZ News