The myth of A League home advantage
BY SAM BUCKLEEverybody’s aware the Phoenix has turned Westpac Stadium - the Ring of Fire - into a fortress. We are unbeaten at home in 12, are favoured to make that 13 against Perth on Sunday and have been running all over teams in the past few weeks.
Yet I suspect it is not so well known that tomorrow it will be 12 months to the day since the Wellington Phoenix won away from home – that was a 2-1 win over Sydney FC on Friday, November 7 (courtesy of a Leo Bertos header and a late Shane Smeltz penalty).
Since that balmy Sydney evening, the Phoenix has played 11 games away from home for 0 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses. Our goal difference over the course of those 11 games is minus 14. That is a very poor record. Our corresponding home record during that same period is 11 played, 6 won and 5 drawn, with a goal difference of plus 15. That is a tremendous record.
These comparative results are bewildering and frustrating. How is it we are so good at home and so dire over the Tasman? The footballing world is rich with theories and ideas as to the nature and basis of home advantage, but in the context of the A-League I struggle to see that any of these apply – which only exacerbates my frustration.
I can appreciate that if you are playing away to CSKA Moscow in the Champions League in the depths of a Russian winter, it’s going to be tricky. I can accept that away to Bahrain in stifling humidity is not going to be favourable. But nothing about playing away to Sydney FC or the Newcastle Jets or Adelaide presents any real challenges.
First, travel. No, not a factor. It’s not that far and the players are used to it.
Second, the weather. Yes, Australia is warmer and Wellington is windier. But, we are talking about professional footballers who have played in different parts of the world. In any case, half the Phoenix is Australian and only a few are born and bred Wellingtonians.
Third, the crowd. OK, the crowd makes a fair bit of noise and gives the opposition some stick, but really, its lighthearted stuff. The Ring of Fire is only a quarter full and it’s hardly a seething pit of crowd fury. It is definitely not Ibrox in an Old Firm derby.
Fourth, the pitch conditions. The surface at the Ring of Fire is fantastic, almost certainly the best in the A-League, but does that suit us more than anyone else? I don’t think so.
Unfortunately, the facts and the numbers defy me. I say there is no such thing as home advantage in the A-League, but the stats (especially ours) say I’m a fool.
Therefore, it must be mentality and mindset. We have convinced ourselves that we should be very tough to beat at home, but that getting a point on the road is a decent result – and we play accordingly. We have accepted the notion that home advantage - as mysterious as it is - does exist. So, we fly out at teams in Wellington and take the game to them from the outset, while we are more tentative away. Don't get me wrong, I think the Phoenix has been a much tougher proposition on the road this year and we have played well at times (e.g. Brisbane, Melbourne and Gold Coast). And teams that visit Wellington are guilty of exactly the same crime. Still, it’s far too long since we grabbed a result on our travels.
Of course, I hope our delusionary state of mind persists until 7pm Sunday night – because I want three points against Perth. Come Monday, however, Ricki Herbert needs to roll in the sports hypnotists, witch doctors - whatever it takes - to dispel the myth of A League home advantage.
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Next away game is against the Jets, so that should help and a '1' in the Win column :D
I know this is a bad example since you play for Warfies, but..
Don't you find it nicer to play at home?
I played reps football for NSW in Australia when I lived there. We did a lot of travelling inter-state and locally. We hated it, there were next to no supports there for us, we didn't know the stadiums very well and it was a tiny bit intimidating.
No players like playing away from home, even in professional leagues. There is nothing like the support (Even if as meek as the Nix - Apparently) of the home crowd to get you motivated.
I think there has to be several factors; the travel, the change in temperature and quie possibly a mental perception that The Phoenix are easy beats (or maybe now it's that they're not).
Now a solitary loss on the road might not concern those teams travelling but as you say 12 matches unbeaten at home is a huge plus for The Phoenix so long may the apathy of visiting sides continue I say!
Sam, reading this article from Australia, it’s laughable. If any team is good enough, they’ll win home or away, that’s why good teams are at the top of the ladder, because they pull off results both home and away.
Laughable, The Watcher? If so, why have you just reiterated the point?
Sam here Watcher, your comment confuses me. I think I agree with you because, yes, good teams should win home or away. So, what, therefore, is more laughable, the fact we can't beat Australian sides over there or the fact they can't beat us here? We must all be a big fat joke.
Hmm, a sample set of about 5 for this assertion. Come on Sam, I know it's only a blog, but even blogger have to back up their assertions with a little bit more robust data than you have ;)
Phil, sampling of course is important - and the Phoenix's home and away record over the past 12 months is not the same as its overall record, which provides a bigger sample of course. Yet, if we take every match the Phoenix has played home and away since its arrival in the A-League (i.e 2.5 seasons), we still have:
- a goal difference at home of +14 - a goal difference away of -31
I need somebody better qualified to calculate the statistical significance of those numbers, but prima facie they are pretty convincing to me.
Perth and Wellington have the longest "national league" trips in the world, I believe. And Queensland is a distinctly different climate. Otherwise familiarity, psychology. I think Aus-NZ is significant. Internally, the Aus teams have little excuse, and I think it shows with the best teams winning.
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Same circumstances for the Warriors and the Breakers and their overseas records are equaly horrenous. Hopefully one of them will sort it one day and can teach the other two