What the Cup draw could mean for NZ

Bloggers have form. Unfortunately, I'm suffering a lapse in mine. An experimental (and let's face it, failed) blog by limerick on Wednesday was followed up by a misinformed and hurried analysis of the World Cup draw. I feel the technical aspects of my game are in reasonable order. But I've definitely been guilty of a pretty cavalier mentality.

Tomorrow we find out who and where we play in South Africa. As a member of Pot 2, we already know there won't be a showdown with Australia and we've no chance of being grouped with a more beatable Asian side, notably North Korea. Pot 2 means life is going to be very tough, whatever our luck tomorrow. I'm sticking with South Africa, Slovenia, Chile and New Zealand as my preferred group.

Given the pending arrival of my fourth child in May, it is a touch delusionary to fantasise about favoured host cities for our three group matches - but I shall indulge.

There are 10 match venues, two in Johannesburg (including the new 94,000 capacity Soccer City Stadium which will host the tournament opener and the final), the rest in Durban, Cape Town, Pretoria, Port Elizabeth, Bloemfontein, Polokwane, Nelspruit and Rustenburg. The draw is such that all teams will travel as groups and are not rooted in a single "host" city. I've not been to South Africa, but I can't say Jo'burg, Pretoria, Rustenbury or Bloemfontein excite the traveller's instinct in me. If we get drawn to play in Jo'burg - which is very likely for at least one game - I recommend you don't read the Ministry of Foreign Affairs travel advisory.

My Yellow Fever World Cup advisers (thanks fellas) inform me that after each country is drawn from its pot into a group (A-H), a second draw is made to determine what number within the group (1-4). There are some pretty uninspiring possibilities. For instance, C2, D4 or E2 would deliver us Rustenburg, Jo'burg and Pretoria. Ugly. 

Every Kiwi planning on being part of the All Whites' travelling army should be crossing their fingers for G4. If we get G4 we can pack our togs and probably leave the mace at home. G4 would see us play in Port Elizabeth, Cape Town and Durban. H3 perhaps a second-best outcome (Nelspruit, Port Elizabeth and Bloemfontein).

Given the amount of unavoidable travelling and the number of games in places like tourism-free zones Jo'burg and Pretoria, its going to be interesting to see how the travel agencies package the tours. Will they expect fans to spend much time in a place like Jo'burg or base them elsewhere and fly them in for the game - and then out again?

Australian fan/travel group The Fanatics is going for the base camp approach - on a mega-scale. They have booked Kingsmead Cricket Ground in Durban and are erecting a tent city for Socceroos fans, putting up giant screens and bringing in Australian bands. Sounds like chaos to me. Australians really are a rabble. I'm sure Yellow Fever's package will be tailored to the more sophisticated Kiwi sports fan and traveller.

All will be revealed soon.

Remember - G4!!

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Billy   #1   01:47 pm Dec 04 2009

Sam - still don't think you've (or your Yellow Fever world cup advisers) got it 100% correct. I don't think we can be B1. The top seeded teams get the "1" positions in the group automatically and the teams from Pots 2 to 4 get drawn into their positions. Maybe next time we could be B1 as a seeded nation!!

Sam Buckle   #2   01:48 pm Dec 04 2009

Thanks to those who pointed out the mistakes in my previous analysis. I had actually gone and rewritten the post before I saw the comments - otherwise I would have acknowledged them more explicitly in the rewrite. Appreciate the vigilance! Sam

Canukiwi   #3   07:54 am Dec 05 2009

Just had a look at the numbers behind the pool grouping, & assuming the latest FIFA rankings are accurate, this is how it looks, as far as NZ is concerned.

We have drawn the pool with the highest average ranking- 36.25. The next closest pool is Group A, solely because of the impact of automatic hosting rights- 31.75.

The toughest group- per the rankings is Group H- which an average ranking, half that of NZ (18), with 3 teams in the Top 20. Group C,D & E are all next = with an average ranking of 21.

If we remove these absolute numbers & go on hunch, my pick for the pool of death would be Group D, which, tragically, Australia were drawn in.

Sam   #4   02:06 pm Dec 05 2009

Pretty decent draw. THanks for the numbers Canukiwi, I was wondering about average rankings! We havent drawn the most glamorous venues (Rustenburg, Nelspruit and Polokwane). To be honest dont know a lot about them, especially Polokwane. Not much in Rustenburg. Nelspruit could be quite a nice town. But glad to avoid Jo'burg.

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