The Reg Index of Coaching Carnage
One of the Sideline Slogger's spies and professional abacus user Reg (aka The Regular Correspondent for those who dial in to The BYC podcast) has found some downtime in his banking job in Canada and unleashed a powerful analysis of Andy Moles's time with the New Zealand Test team.
Under this statistical assault, the New Zealand coach stood absolutely no chance whatsoever, although some huge blowouts courtesy of the arms of Tim Southee and James Franklin had a hugely detrimental effect. I am sure the Economist will have something quite sensible to say which may see the rug at least partly whipped out from beneath the Reg Index but that's OK, I thought it was interesting enough to share.
Reg writes: "I have done some detailed and comprehensive analysis on our last three coaches. The aim was to see who has actually improved our players the most. Therefore my basis was to take the players' averages who have played under both regimes and compare their averages from period to period. I only took the batsmen and bowlers who were in the top half of the averages to try and gauge their improvement, and left out part-timers or one-hit wonders."
Reg's results rank the one and only John Bracewell as the best of the past three New Zealand coaches, with his predecessor Denis Charles Aberhart taking silver based on improvement in the wake of David Trist. Moles, who followed in the complicated shoes of Bracewell, lies third by a long, long way.
Of course, it doesn't look like any of them have a hell of a lot to write home about in terms of making a hugely positive difference. Soberingly, it's more a case of working out which one presided over the smallest decline. In fact of the batting and bowling averages from 2001-2009, it appears that the only coaches who can boast of improvement are Bracewell and Moles, both of whom presided over batting average increases.
Under Aberhart, the batsmen's averages declined by an average of 3.6 runs, and the bowlers' averages declined 9.0 runs. His overall index of improvement based on Reg's Index ends up being -5.4. The most improved batsman and bowler were Nathan Astle and Brooke Walker.
Under Bracewell, the batsmen improved by 5.3 runs, and the bowlers got worse by 6.0 runs. His Reg Index score is a paltry -0.7. Most improved: Daniel Vettori and Chris Martin.
Under Moles, the batsmen continued to improve but only by 3.3. runs. But the bowling went to the house of the devil, with the bowling averages declining by a staggering 34.9 runs. His overall Reg Index score was a dreadful -31.6. Most improved: Aaron Redmond and, although none of the bowlers' averages improved under his reign, the least worst was Vettori.
So, what is the answer to Reg's question - is it time to let bygones be bygones and invite the Mad Professor that was John Bracewell back into the fold? God forbid. If I was NZC, I would not be saying another word about who is applying, whether John Wright should be the coach, or anything else - not until the person is signed, sealed and delivered.
On a slightly related note, someone posted under the name Martin Crowe on the last epistle. I have no idea if it was or wasn't the man called Hogan (eerily similar to Holden) but whoever it was, made their message sound as if it could have come from the great batsman and ideas man himself: "Yep I did [make] those two contradicting comments. Guilty. I changed my mind and believe Vettori may as well have the lot as he is the only one equipped at present. It's all so messy and he would keep it simple, at least for a while. Also I would be a dreadful team coach, mainly because I have never believed in them, only in 1-on-1 coaches because they can teach and guide you on a specific skill. Cricket is essentially a 1-on-1 game. Also captains need to be in charge in cricket, not coaches, it's not an 80 minute game. Also I'm guilty of believing in my knowledge on batting, not others..."
And on an unrelated note, thanks to everyone who comes in here and chips away - as Dylan Cleaver put it on Sunday in his "good night and good luck" piece: "Perhaps circumstance and mediocrity have forced New Zealand fans to be more rounded and less jingoistic than others. They appreciate good cricket. All the better when New Zealand play well but it's not absolutely necessary. That's why there were times last season when the epic Australia-South Africa tests were rating higher than the dross that was being served up by New Zealand and the West Indies in Dunedin. That's healthy, not unpatriotic. Read the cricket blogs around the country - the best being Sideline Slogger. The threads are full of opinion, some of it misguided, some of it inspired, but all are posted with a loving touch."
And on a completely unrelated note, if you can explain why this Wiggle is wearing a Beige Brigade shirt in a DVD watched in Meadowbank at the weekend, let me know. I can't.
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Interesting stuff; thanks Reg. Bowling looks pretty dire on those figures, unfortunately there really doesn't seem to be any young guys due for a call up to fix it either. On the other hand, having 3 guys averaging over 50 with the bat is a nice change (yes it's only over a short period, i know it doesn't show true ability etc; oh, don't need to prepare for an "Eddie Assault" anymore!) on the down side, one of them bats at 7 and the other can't make the team unless there's an injury. P.S, nice work getting the original woman slayer to comment!
Reg, can we have Rixons numbers post Turner?
So Mills is out for the ODI tonight & Vettori is thinking of a twin spin attack. Should be interesting to see how we go also Watling or Redmond for the first game?
Interesting numbers. More for how it shows the highs and lows of individual performers. I can't say I recall what Chris Drum did so wrong to fall out of the side. Especially looking at his first class record, 199 wickets @ 18.43, he's still only 35 now, what happened?
This is how cricinfo see the NZ side shaping up for tonights match
New Zealand (probable): 1 Aaron Redmond, 2 Brendon McCullum (wk), 3 Martin Guptill, 4 Ross Taylor, 5 Scott Styris, 6 Neil Broom, 7 Daniel Vettori (capt), 8 Jacob Oram, 9 Nathan McCullum, 10 Shane Bond, 11 Tim Southee
Certainly not the worst side we could put on the park. If Mills is indeed injured, then Southee fits the bill. I'm glad to see Nathan McCullum in the team, especially on what will presumably be lower slower decks. If Butler doesn't get a game here, he will when the team gets back to NZ.
McCullum will also be expected to bowl his full quota, along with Bond, Southee and Vettori. That means Oram and probably more likely Styris will be expected to make up the other 10. If someone breaks down during a game, we could be a bit shafted. I wonder if they've had Redmond rolling his arm over a little more than usual in the nets?
It's going to be an interesting contest, but surely the winning of the game lies at a very basic level, our batsmen need to fire and our bowlers need to contain.
I go away for the weekend and suddenly the celebrities arrive. An interesting comment from Mr Crowe (we can put him in the "no need for coaches" camp with Warne by the sounds of things). Is it time we became the first team to give this a try? It sounds like an appointment will be a while coming - if in the meantime we get some good results against Pakistan, just maybe NZ cricket will start to think "Hey, wait a minute - we could actually blow the coach's salary money on hats!"
I take it these stats are combined for all forms of the game Holden?
Jez, Chris Drum retired aged 27 to 'pursue business interests' - seems strange. Apparently didn't see himself getting a spot in the team with Bond, Cairns, O'Connor and Nash all about to come back from injury. History obviously shows that up as a load of rot! Still, his heart clearly wasn't in it.
Also, really hoping one of Mills or Butler scrubs up for tonights game. Even if they don't, would be tempted to pick Franklin ahead of Southee. I don't like the look of Cricinfo's team as it somehow looks batting-light and bowling-light at the same time. If Oram is to play and bat at 8 (let's face it, that's where he deserves to bat at present) then he must bowl close to 10 overs to justify a spot. His bowling should be good in those conditions. Broom will be very lucky to play, but perhaps he should bat 5 and Styris 6. Alternatively, Vettori may bat 6 as he mentioned a while back which could mean Broom is dropped and Oram and Franklin bat 7 and 8. Styris and Vettori will be our key batsmen against Pakistan's spin bowlers.
I cannot see how Wright can be selected as coach after Vettori voiced his concerns. What would happen if those two didint get on...so in saying that I am sure they will go the Rixon way...Vettori has played under him...by all accounts he rates him so why would NZC take a huge risk and appoint Wright or any body else for that reason As sad as it might sound we are in a position where he captain needs to get on with the coach..
Big ups to MD Crowe for fronting up, something that a few other so called "experts" could do from time to time! I'm with Great White...can we see Rixons numbers post Turner? What about Wrights numbers post whoever the hell he took over from in India? It will be great to see Pig / Milley back on board, he is a class player and its these sorts of players with some decent experience that we need to hang around for a bit longer to give the young guys some guidance!
Haha, well done Holden. You have facilitated the living out of my life long dream of (sort of) interacting with Mr Crowe, albeit via the interwebs.
Too bad Eddy the Eagle isn't around anymore to try to start a flame war with Hogan.
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Paul, that was indeed the real Martin Crowe who left that comment.