Smeltz - sound investment or costly gamble?

Fairfax Media

Smelling victory: Phoenix striker Shane Smeltz scored twice as the All Whites reached the next round of the World Cup qualifiers.

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The only certainty over the future footballing home of ace striker Shane Smeltz is this: he holds all the cards.

The Wellington Phoenix striker is hot property in the A-League the Phoenix want to keep him, competition newbies next season Gold Coast are keen to snatch him away, while Adelaide United have also been linked to a move for the league's top scorer.

If you were to describe Smeltz' abilities to someone who had never seen him play, it'd go a lot like this: "Well, he's not particularly quick. He's not exactly a targetman who holds the ball up, and he doesn't win a lot in the air. He's okay running at people."

That's being a tad disingenuous and leaves out the key fact he scores goals. And while managers would love their strikers to be lightning quicker than a sinking sharemarket, braver than Joan of Arc and better in the air than the Red Baron those qualities would all rank behind the knack of finding the net.

When it comes to football, goals are golden, and because Smeltz has that rare knack of constantly finding the net, he's poised to reap the dividends of a fat contract.

Over the past two seasons, Smeltz has scored at a tasty rate he netted nine goals in 19 matches for the lowly Phoenix in their debut season and this year has scored six times in as many matches.

And in 50 games for non-league English side AFC Wimbledon in 2005/06 he scored 26 times.

But is this just a purple patch for the 27-year-old who, before signing with the Phoenix, had never been rated a star?

There's evidence that suggests this is possible in 31 appearances for non-league Halifax Town in 2006/07, Smeltz scored just twice.

Will he experience a regression to the mean? Has his recent run of goals been a statistical anomaly and is he due for a rapid slide down the bell curve?

If he signs for the Phoenix for the next two seasons and the goals dry up, where does that leave the fledgling franchise?

Before his emergence, few A-League fans would have suggested he was a better striker than Adam Kwasnik, who had impressed for the Central Coast Mariners before joining the Phoenix this season.

Yet Kwasnik hasn't scored for the Phoenix although in his defence he's being played badly out of position by coach Ricki Herbert in an unsuitable wide role.

Part of the argument for the Phoenix to dig deep into their pockets to keep Smeltz is that the Phoenix should always boast the best New Zealand players as the game's flagship in this country.

It's a flawed argument that falls down when you examine the early seasons of the New Zealand Breakers.

They initially attempted to conquer the Australian National Basketball League with a side stacked full of Tall Blacks Pero Cameron, Phill Jones, Dillon Boucher, Paul Henare and Paora Winitana were expected to play starring roles in a successful side while generating Kiwi loyalty.

They quickly discovered it wasn't a fruitful recipe. Now Jones, Boucher and Henare play supporting roles to the likes of well-paid Australian stars CJ Bruton and Tony Ronaldson, US import Rick Rickert and a world-class Kiwi, Kirk Penney.

The Breakers are winning and the North Shore Events Centre is rocking each Thursday night.

Ultimately, the only thing that gets fans through the turnstiles is winning nationality be damned.

It may be that Smeltz does hold the key to the future success of the Phoenix but just how much the club will be willing to bet that his goal-scoring form continues is the costly gamble.

- © Fairfax NZ News