Self-belief might get Phoenix through

BY PAUL THOMPSON

OPINION: On paper, or at least on Vitezslav Lavicka's coaching whiteboard, Sydney FC should ease past the Wellington Phoenix on Saturday night.

Man-for-man Sydney are the stronger team, they play with more guile, variation and pace, and they have already comfortably beaten the New Zealand side three times this season.

The Phoenix have barely fired a shot in return.

---

Stuff.co.nz will have full coverage, including live blog and photos of the Wellington Phoenix's bid for a place in the A-League grand final on Saturday night.

---

Lavicka's team talk ahead of the A-League elimination semifinal at Sydney Football Stadium should therefore be simple. Neutralise Paul Ifill and Leo Bertos, apply pace and creative pressure through the midfield, probe the Phoenix's weak left defensive flank, and the game should go Sydney's way.

Reality out on the pitch, however, is likely to be much more challenging for the Sky Blues.

The Phoenix are the form team of the playoffs and carry two vital ingredients into the match – momentum and confidence.

They have shown they can scrap with the best of them while also injecting genuine skill and flair into tense matches.

In short, they have become winners. It wasn't always so this season.

At times the Phoenix were patchy, unadventurous and seized by defensive caution. It was as though they somehow believed they could draw their way to the playoffs.

But slowly the self-belief has grown, nurtured by coach Ricki Herbert, who has had a brilliant season.

Herbert would never admit it, but he got some things badly wrong early on. His squad lacked genuine striking power and seemed stuffed with journeymen midfielders.

Timid tactics contributed to a sense of malaise.

Herbert was, however, astute and brave enough to loosen the shackles and allow the Phoenix to play an attacking and expansive game.

His masterstroke has been the way he has been able to emphasise the team's strengths, rather than be hobbled by its weaknesses.

The result is a team that still lacks pace and penetration up front and creativity in central midfield.

But they are granite-like in defence and lethal out wide.

In Ifill, they have a player born to torment defenders and turn them inside out.

He will play a significant role tomorrow and has one quality that sets him apart from other maestros of the dribble. As was evident against the Newcastle Jets last week, he hungers to score and will keep trying to hit the back of the net even when he misses easy chances.

Two other attacking players will also need watching.

Bertos has been lacklustre in the past few weeks and his meandering runs have tended to end in disappointment and a goal kick for the opposition.

But he has the ability to hurt Sydney if he straightens his runs with the ball and attacks space behind defenders. He is due a big game.

The Phoenix's sole striker, Chris Greenacre, is the other to watch. He is more a blunt instrument than a stiletto but he played well against Newcastle and is the sort who can sniff out goals from half-chances.

But in all likelihood the match is more likely to be decided at the other end of the park tomorrow.

Sydney have terrific attacking talent and the likes of Alex Brosque have terrorised the Phoenix this season.

Who could forget the way Brosque powered past hapless Wellington centreback Ben Sigmund to set up Mark Bridge's goal in Sydney's 3-1 victory in November?

Yet Wellington's defence has rarely been embarrassed in such a fashion during this campaign and, in fact, is one of the strongest in the A-League. Only Sydney conceded fewer goals in the regular season.

We can expect a more resolute performance from the Phoenix back-four tomorrow with Sigmund likely to be replaced by the superior Jon McKain, who returns from suspension.

New signing Liam Reddy, meanwhile, has shown Kiwi football fans the difference a top keeper can make.

Sydney will also have to cope with one other crucial factor tomorrow, one it will find the most difficult to counter.

Football is on a high in New Zealand and the self-belief is palpable. Wellington, the country's capital, has been swept by yellow fever.

Herbert has not only guided the All Whites to the World Cup. He is now one game away from taking the Phoenix to an A-League grand final.

It is heady stuff for a nation that is usually transfixed by rugby.

At a moment when anything seems possible for New Zealand football, taking on Sydney away from home in the playoffs suddenly feels less daunting than it ought to be.

- © Fairfax NZ News