Murray can beat Djokovic

OPINION: Don't laugh, but Andy Murray can beat Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open tonight.

If ever Murray can bring down Djokovic in a Grand Slam, he may never have a better chance than tonight.
For the first half of last year Djokovic was unbeatable, he was simply playing the game at another level to everyone else.

But towards the end of 2011 his form did dip slightly and against Murray at the season ending ATP Masters Finals in London, Djokovic retired when down 6-3 3-0.

Although that loss can be blamed on the Serbian feeling ill, it did chip away at the aura of invincibility that Djokovic had built for himself earlier in the year.

There are two reasons to suggest that Murray can beat Djokovic.

The first is the affect that Ivan Lendl is having on him as his new coach.

It is a partnership that has already brought success in the few weeks it's been together, with the winning of the Brisbane International tournament the week before the Australian Open.

So far Murray has looked calmer than he's ever appeared previously at a Grand Slam.

There is no more screaming to the box when he loses a big point, while in the post match press conferences he has appeared relaxed and comfortable in his surroundings.

Being away from Wimbledon, Murray is able to escape the pressure he gets from the media and public there.
The attention is spread around Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer here in Melbourne, while at Wimbledon it's all about him.

Murray has been playing well so far over the past two weeks, but he has been fortunate that he hasn't played any of the top players underneath that elite top four.

When the draw came out, it looked like he'd play Gael Monfils in the round of 16 and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarterfinals, but both Frenchman bit the dust before the got a chance to go up against Murray.

It meant that the Scot played Mikhail Kukushkin from Kazakhstan and Japan's Kei Nishikori in his last two matches, both of which he won comfortably and as the only set he's dropped so far was the first one against Ryan Harrison in the first round, it can be argued that he hasn't been pushed yet.

However, the counter argument is that you can only beat who you play and there certainly haven't been any worrying moments for Team Murray so far.

The same can't be said for Djokovic though. If Murray or Lendl need any help in devising a game to beat the world No 1, they only need to look at how David Ferrer played against him in Wednesday night's quarterfinal.
Although the Spaniard lost in straight sets, he raised question marks about Djokovic's fitness and injury status.

After the match Djokovic played down suggestions that he had fitness issues, but it was clear to everyone at Rod Laver Arena or those watching on TV that Djokovic did pull up lame after a couple of points and also he was struggling to breath after long rallies.

Ferrer looked to move Djokovic whenever he could, rather than go for winners, the Heineken Open winner would continually make his opponent run from one side of the court to the other.

The problem for Ferrer was that he couldn't keep doing this consistently and his own game fell away badly in the third set.

You'd have to think that this won't happen for Murray. He is a far better player and wouldn't let Djokovic off the hook like Ferrer did.

Murray doesn't need to be overly attacking, but keep Djokovic moving, wear him down and win a least one of the first two sets.

If it goes to five sets you'd have to back Murray's fitness, but if Djokovic can believe he can win it in three, he'll have enough strength to keep battling on, as he did against Ferrer.

However, while I'm saying Murray can win tonight, I did predict Kim Clijsters to win the women's tournament, so the strike rate's not good so far.

- © Fairfax NZ News