Welsh seek drop of hope against All Blacks

BY TONY ROBSON IN CARDIFF

All Blacks assistant coach Steve Hansen's old cliche was about as succinct as it got in the buildup to tomorrow morning's test.

"It only takes a drop to break a drought," Hansen drawled as the team was named.

It wouldn't be a bad line for him to roll out in the changing sheds at Millennium Stadium.

From the haka onward, Wales will be looking for Hansen's drop, that moment where the All Blacks doubt, and the 70,000-plus Welshmen in attendance believe, that they can win.

Pressure, as Munster showed on last year's northern tour, can make young players, even All Blacks, do silly things. It is the desperation of the home side to break its 56-year, 22-match drought that makes this contest so enthralling.

The history behind the clash is rich, from Bob Deans' disallowed try in 1905 through the era of Jonathan Davies to last year's haka standoff.

Current Wales coach Warren Gatland has added his own chapter in trying to tear down the aura of his former team.

There has been an incessant drone out of the Welsh camp this week, from Gatland to wing Leigh Halfpenny to daily "lost aura" headlines in the national and local newspapers.

The truth is that the All Blacks' greatest threat is the emotional charge that will resonate from the stands. Its power will last only so long and, in first-five Dan Carter, the All Blacks have a player capable of taking the wind out of the singing masses' lungs with his accurate tactical boot.

The average score between these two sides is 30-9. On paper a similar scoreline is not out of the question.

Wales have gamebreakers in the midfield in second-five Jamie Roberts and centre Tom Shanklin, but it will be interesting to see whether they ape South Africa and look to the skies.

Wing Shane Williams' powers have been on the wane, fullback James Hook is out of position and Halfpenny is a 20-year-old rookie.

It's a similar case up front, where Paul James, in just his second test, has switched sides to play one of the most important positions on the field at tighthead prop.

Wales also have a third-string halfback in Gareth Cooper. It is hardly the stuff of legends.

The same might be said of the All Blacks, with two key men suspended and six changes from the side that beat Australia in Tokyo.

But there is little between most of the players who have come in and those they replaced.

Arguably, Jerome Kaino and Jason Eaton have added a harder edge to the pack, Kieran Read is a form horse at No 8 and, if halfback Brendon Leonard can rediscover his confidence, he and Read could make life tough for Wales running wide off scrums.

The All Blacks appear to have changed their attack under Hansen. Judging from training, it has become more varied in its point of attack, but simpler in its makeup.

Angles have become more direct, with players running short balls back against the drift defence and halfbacks given the scope to switch play from second-phase ball.

The ball going behind decoy runners appears less often and fancy short kicks are being used more sparingly.

Quick ball remains the All Blacks' staple goal and they will send the bare minimum to the breakdown until they are forced to do otherwise by Welsh openside flanker Martyn Williams.

Where the All Blacks have been ruthless in their past two tests is in the close-quarter pick-and-go, which has been employed against tiring defences to suck in tacklers and open holes wider out.

But this side will not retreat to its shell. The power and pace of the All Blacks' backs will be the chief undoing of the Welsh.

If the first half is a war in the trenches, expect the second to belong to speedsters Zac Guildford, Mils Muliaina and Cory Jane.

Factor in Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith, who are becoming one of the better midfield combinations of recent times, and Wales will do well to keep their line intact.

Wales have beaten the All Blacks three times, but a fourth does not seem likely tomorrow despite a memorable call-to-arms.

HOW THEY LINE UP

Venue: Millennium Stadium

TV: Sky Sport 1, tomorrow 6.30am

TAB odds: All Blacks $1.15, Wales $5.00

Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)

All Blacks: Mils Muliaina, Cory Jane, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Zac Guildford, Dan Carter, Brendon Leonard, Kieran Read, Richie McCaw (c), Jerome Kaino, Jason Eaton, Brad Thorn, Neemia Tialata, Andrew Hore, Wyatt Crockett. Reserves: Corey Flynn, Owen Franks, Tom Donnelly, Adam Thomson, Jimmy Cowan, Stephen Donald, Ben Smith.

Wales: James Hook, Leigh Halfpenny, Tom Shanklin, Jamie Roberts, Shane Williams, Stephen Jones, Gareth Cooper, Ryan Jones (c), Martyn Williams, Andy Powell, Luke Charteris, Alun-Wyn Jones, Paul James, Matthew Rees, Gethin Jenkins. Reserves: Huw Bennett, Duncan Jones, Bradley Davies, Dafydd Jones, Martin Roberts, Jonathan Davies, Tom James.

- © Fairfax NZ News