The red dragon has little faith in firepower

The sun has been out in Cardiff this week, a winter sight as rare as a Welshman who thinks the All Blacks might lose on Sunday.
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Scotland and Ireland might survive on false hope - but at least they have that. The Welsh give their side no hope.

Former Wales flanker, Gwyn Jones, who captained his country against New Zealand when the All Blacks won 42-7 at Wembley Stadium in 1997, is a typical case.

"I can't see it. I just cannot see it happening. I cannot see Wales beating New Zealand," he wrote in the Western Mail.

"I mean, there is more chance of Wales winning than there is of Elvis crashing a UFO into the Loch Ness Monster, but there's not much in it."

Jones admitted such negative thoughts had been impossible to dispel when he played against the All Blacks.

"There is no doubt I held them in awe and thought they were better than we were and, when I looked within myself, there is no doubt that I thought that they would win."

Jones was on solid ground with his dark thoughts. The reality is that if the All Blacks play to their best they are a considerably better rugby team than Ireland, Scotland and Wales, and good enough, most days, to defeat England.

The facts speak for themselves. Scotland and Ireland have failed again in the past fortnight to register an historic win while England have managed only six in 31 attempts - and only twice in the 13 tests since the game turned professional.

Wales have beaten the All Blacks only three times in 23 attempts and the last of those was a 13-8 victory at Cardiff Arms Park in 1953. In the years since they have lost 19 tests to the All Blacks, conceding an average of 30 points along the way.

Wales did lose by just a point, 26-25, in 2004 when they were the Six Nations champions, just as they are now - but that day was the exception, not the rule.

If that was relevant, so too must be the 45-10 and 41-3 scorelines, both in Cardiff, that the All Blacks achieved in 2005 and 2006.

The All Blacks don't like such records, as it plays havoc with their attempts to talk the other team up, as backs coach Wayne Smith did yesterday.

"It's not like you can just walk out there and beat them.  I think a lot of people think it is, it's not, it's a lot more difficult.

"We know we have to match them in the tough places.  If you can't match them up front or in terms of the passion and physicality then it doesn't matter how good your backs are or how well you play with the ball in hand, you are not going to win".

The problem for Wales is that this is an All Blacks team that's improving. A patchwork side beat Scotland while the nucleus of this team was far too good for Ireland and will lift again from that test.

They have a good pack, foraging loose forwards and backs with the requisite ability to score from set phase or turnover ball.

It might take a while to see off the Welsh passion, especially with the fantastic support they get at the Millennium Stadium -whose roof will be closed.

The All Blacks might also take a bit of time adjusting to Warren Gatland's rushed defence tactics.

But Wales will only win if the All Blacks play poorly.  If both sides are at their best the result can only go one way.

Just ask Jones, who says reckons a loss by 10 points or less would be "a virtual victory".

Imagine an All Blacks captain saying that.

New Zealand v Wales

Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff

Sky Sport:  6.15am Sunday

Referee: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa)

Assistant referees: Dave Pearson (England), Cobus Wessels (South Africa)

TMO: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)

TAB odds: New Zealand $1.07, Wales $7.50

NEW ZEALAND: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan; 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock. Reserves: 16 Hikawera Elliot, 17 John Afoa, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Kieran Read, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Isaia Toeava.

WALES: Lee Byrne, Leigh Halfpenny, Tom Shanklin, Jamie Roberts, Shane Williams, Stephen Jones, Gareth Cooper; Andy Powell, Martyn Williams, Ryan Jones (captain), Ian Evans, Alun Wyn Jones, Adam Jones, Matthew Rees, Gethin Jenkins. Reserves: Richard Hibbard, John Yapp, Luke Charteris, Dafydd Jones, Dwayne Peel, James Hook/Dan Biggar, Andrew Bishop. _ Fairfax Media

 

 

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