Deans hoists up 'n' under and waits

Robbie Deans is playing it smart, as usual, down in Crusaders country. He's thrown his hat into the ring and now he's put the shutters back up.

Last week's announcement that he was "keen and available" to coach the All Blacks is to be his final word on the matter until he finds if there's actually a job to campaign for.

After speaking publicly for the first and only time on his All Black aspirations in Christchurch on Wednesday, the champion coach has left the ball in the New Zealand Rugby Union's court.

Their next move, expected to be in a week or two, will decide the question on everyone's lips: Will it be Robbie or will it be Graham?

Actually all Deans did on Wednesday was follow his contractual protocol. He is still employed by the NZRU, after all, and as such has to be available to coach the All Blacks.

All his few well-chosen words did was confirm that the Deans mindset is very much on stepping into the top job in New Zealand rugby.

As opposed to the equivalent one in Australia, or Wales, or England, or wherever.

Deans is a wanted man all over the world, but it remains to be seen whether his own country is as desperate to avail themselves of his services as his other suitors.

It's said that the Australian union may well put its whole coaching appointment process on the back-burner for a month simply to wait and see how Deans' All Black tango plays out. They're that keen to land him.

The smart money says he won't be available, that Graham Henry, despite steadfastly refusing to fall on his sword, will be given the "Don't Come Monday" message once the All Blacks coaching review is completed, that the job will effectively be handed to Deans.

Here's how it should play out.

The NZRU will complete its review of the All Blacks coaches over the next couple of weeks board chairman Jock Hobbs told the Sunday Star-Times he was aiming for a "mid-November" conclusion and then will initiate the appointment process.

This is the key juncture.

It's an either/or scenario. Either they decide to make the next appointment contestable or they don't.

If they opt for the latter pathway they will basically reappoint Henry, with the general consensus that assistant coach Wayne Smith will be offered up as the sacrificial lamb. Hobbs confirmed an uncontested appointment was an "option".

But every shred of commonsense and reasonable rugby intelligence suggests that the NZRU will not opt for this course of events.

They will open up the process, which means a kiss of death for Henry, who confirmed on Friday that he was not going anywhere until the review was over.

"We are doing our best to make sure we rule off correctly from the World Cup," he said.

But the decision will surely be made for him.

If the NZRU makes the new coaching appointment contestable, Henry is essentially a dead man walking. So, too, is his assistant Steve Hansen, who aspires to the top job, but is rather hog-tied following the World Cup shambles.

To summarise, in all likelihood the NZRU will announce in about two weeks' time that they've finished their coaching review and that the position of All Blacks coach for 2008 will be open for application: sounding a death sentence for the Henry regime and clearing the way for Deans.

If Henry has to apply again, he's finished. Simple as that.

The NZRU will effectively be declaring: "We need new blood".

The way I see it, the only way this scenario wouldn't play out is if the NZRU board get cold feet over their own complicity in this world cup brouhaha over reconditioning and rotation, and elect to reappoint Henry carte blanche. That sort of reckless decision-making would, you'd think, have the provincial unions ready to seize control (they are, remember, the constituency the board is supposed to represent).

Some More questions perhaps. OK, here's one: Why hasn't Henry fallen on his sword already?

Good question. Because he is waiting to see how the review plays out, whether he has a chance of survival and whether he can possibly play a role in easing his offsider Hansen into the top job. Expect Henry to gracefully withdraw should the NZRU decide not to reappoint him.

He won't go head-to-head with Deans.

Another: How's public opinion shaping? Well, it seems to be swinging in behind Deans, despite the initial sympathy vote going to Henry.

The latest poll on Fairfax's RugbyHeaven website showed two-thirds of respondents favoured Deans over Henry after the Crusaders supremo declared his intent.

So, why isn't Deans campaigning for the job right now then? Easy. He's too smart for that. There's nothing to be gained by him saying anything more on the matter until the NZRU make their big call and confirm he has a job to shoot for.

Until then Deans is keeping schtum and will be content to let the pressure mount around the board table in Wellington.

As every day passes there seems to be a growing recognition that Henry's regime had their chance and that it is time now for Deans to be given his. Not only that, to fail to snap him up might also be to hand him straight to the opposition.

Where to from here, then? Well, as mentioned, reports have to be filed, assessments made and the final bit of paper signed off that says what we all already know: that Henry, Hansen and Smith did their best, won a lot of games of rugby along the way but failed to deliver the world cup.

Their policies did not produce an All Black team with a hard enough edge at the business end.

Nothing personal, but you had your chance, men. Now please step aside while we give the hottest coach in world rugby his opportunity.

What about this independent review into the World Cup failure? What part will that play in the decision over the next All Blacks coach?

None, is the short answer.

Jock Hobbs has made this clear from the outset, but some have been a little slow on the uptake here. The independent review will not be completed in time to affect the coaching decision (indeed it, too, will only be framed and have personnel appointed in the mid-November timeslot as well).

Hobbs added: "It's a completely separate review with much wider terms of reference, considering the whole Rugby World Cup project. Its purpose is not to apportion blame but to look for learnings, and that's going to take a bit of time."

What about this perception that the NZRU are fiddling while Rome burns? There are mutterings that they need to leap to action, act decisively and get this whole situation sorted.

Again, Hobbs: "We're not sitting on our hands. We think there's a proper, logical, professional way to deal with this, and we are doing that.

"The best way to get the best outcome is to go through a fair and robust process and that's exactly what we're doing."

Translation: they're thinking things through before they wield the axe.

Last but not least, are there any other coaches in the mix here?

Well, yes of course, but there's no escaping the fact that Deans and Henry are the key protagonists. There's Warren Gatland, but you have to figure he's destined to be a bit-player in this. Possibly an assistant, though again smart money has Deans lining up Colin Cooper as his key No2.

And Hansen?

Well, given that he and Deans, er, don't see eye to eye, it could well be that he is about to enter the job market.

I hear Wales is particularly nice at this time of the year.

- © Fairfax NZ News