Crusaders always worth a punt, Chiefs at ridiculous odds

OPINION: Let's begin with a disclaimer. I have only made one really successful bet in my life, and it has been repeated 11 times.

After the remarkable 1998 win at Eden Park by the Crusaders in the Super 12 final, the TAB dropped them to midfield in the betting order in 1999, offering $9 for a victory.

Before the tournament started I put $100 on the Crusaders, and have done so ever since. With five wins in 10 seasons so far it's been infinitely better than investing in Kiwibank, let alone Blue Chip.

With another season about to kick off let's consider the options for 2010, and who might feel ready to risk a lazy $20 on his or her team.

In times of economic unease, the logical first place to stop is still with the Crusaders. They are so accustomed to being tipped to win that favouritism seems to weigh on them as heavily as quantum physics does on Paris Hilton's mind.

Last year, sans Dan Carter, with a team edging through so many close games coach Todd Blackadder noted it was too late for him to turn grey, but he was starting to worry the tension might make him bald. Yet they still made the semifinals, starting with such a roar a major upset seemed possible until the Bulls' power, a drop kick barrage, and the thin Pretoria air combined to take away their mojo.

If Carter makes the same difference to the Crusaders that he made to the All Blacks last year, the $4 on offer for the title feels like generous odds.

The most patriotic punt would surely be from an outraged Motumaoho sharemilker, disgusted that the Chiefs are only ranked third among New Zealand teams by the TAB, behind not only the Crusaders, but also the Hurricanes ($8.50 to win). Worse, for fans south of the Bombay Hills, the nation's bookies are adding insult to injury by offering the same odds, $11 for the title, for both the Chiefs and the Blues.

It's hard to know why last year's finalists have dropped so far off the radar with the TAB. There are no major defections from 2009, Ian Foster is still coach, and the Chiefs even have the luxury of two All Blacks, Stephen Donald and Michael Delaney, vying for the crucial, controlling first five position.

As for the Canes, it will be fascinating to see whether Aaron Cruden can realise the blazing talent he showed with Manawatu last year.

Dealing with the horrors of testicular cancer means his life experience is totally different to the usually cosseted world of the young rugby star.

Off the field he's one of the most grounded, mature players I've interviewed. It's a terrific mindset to bring to playing No10, and, given that he's dealt with real, life threatening, pressure I doubt it'll add to his rugby load to suggest that he may be the one to change the Canes from an occasional threat to real contenders.

At the Blues life without Ali Williams will be challenging.

During the week a medical expert assured me that there's no reason why Williams couldn't recover from his ruptured Achilles tendon and return as good as ever.

Doomsayers, said the surgeon, should look no further than the startling return of Carter for a more optimistic template.

But while the prospect of a rejuvenated Williams is great news on a national scale, it would take wise men, camels and a star rising in the east for him to be playing before the end of the year.

Williams, whether by accident or design, has developed a well deserved reputation for eccentricity, but a former Crusaders team-mate from 2008 swears that inside the team he was liked, loyal, and motivational.

And finally, for the scarfie who doesn't mind tweaking out the student loan a bit further, the Highlanders, 11th last year, are paying $50 for the win.

You don't have to be from Balclutha to wish this group, so many young and promising, well, but realistically any placing higher than mid-table would be a terrific effort.

- © Fairfax NZ News