Lions and Magpies, contenders or pretenders?

MAARTEN HOLL/The Dominion Post

NOT AGAIN: Dejected Wellington halfback Piri Weepu after losing another NPC final to - who else? - Canterbury.

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OPINION: So close and yet so far. Nearly men. Both descriptions could apply to the Hawke's Bay and Wellington teams. Is this the year they change all that?

Wannabes and chokers.

Those are the two crueller tags used to heckle Hawke's Bay and Wellington rugby supporters around the barbecue in recent summers.

Hawke's Bay have been the feel-good story of domestic rugby in recent seasons, the Magpies soaring back into the top echelon after years of watching their talent walk out the door for greener pastures.

All that changed when coach Peter Russell arrived from Wellington in 2007. As Super rugby boundaries have broken down, the departure gates at Napier Airport have been less frequented by the region's top talent.

For all that though, Hawke's Bay feel unfulfilled. There's still the hint of a chip on the shoulder and you get the feeling this ambitious administration would love nothing more than to ram an NPC title down their rivals' throats.

The Magpies have been beaten semifinalists for the past three seasons and finished last year with a hollow feeling after losing 20-3 to a full-strength Canterbury in the semifinals.

The goal was to improve by 20 per cent. The arrivals of halfback Kahn Fotuali'i from Canterbury and league convert Luke Rooney from France were a good start. Nothing's been lost in switching Dan Kirkpatrick with Matt Berquist at first-five.

However, planning hit a few speed bumps in the off-season with the loss of prop Sona Taumalolo for the season with a shoulder injury and No8 Thomas Waldrom to England.

A bold bid to lure Sonny Bill-Williams to Napier also fell over, while Israel Dagg's All Black elevation is a curse and a blessing.

Top four beckons again, but the title will take a dash of luck and some Hawke's Bay magic.

In Wellington's case hope springs eternal – again.

If Lions fans had a dollar for every season they thought they'd win the title, but didn't, they'd all be rich. Four straight finals, four straight heartbreaks.

This time it's different. Honest. No 8 Rodney So'oialo's and prop Neemia Tialata's fall out of test favour are a big boost, providing valuable experience to a side brimming with youthful attacking talent.

Hosea Gear will be out with the sevens for a few weeks but is a trump card on the wing, and Julian Savea has huge potential on the opposite flank.

IT'LL mean nothing should the likely late-season showdown with Canterbury eventuate. The biggest pity is that coach Jamie Joseph is leaving just as his work-ethic message is getting through to Wellington's forwards.

Look out for workaholic Oriental-Rongotai lock Mark Reddish to add starch to the tight five and, if he can stay injury-free, for Faifili Levave to fulfil his potential in the loose.

If his pack can dominate, halfback Alby Mathewson should run riot, while first-five Fa'atonu Fili is a magician, but only as long as he's going forward.

Canterbury should be there at season's end to haunt and taunt the Lions again.

But there's some challenges in Christchurch. The All Blacks won't play a big part and only the reserves are likely to come and go as the season progresses.

Will Sonny Bill Williams prove a distraction or a weapon? How interested is Stephen Brett? And will Robbie Fruean return?

Auckland have broken out the zimmerframes for Ben Atiga, Brent Ward and Daniel Braid and sent an SOS for a first-five, Berquist finding the note in the bottle on a Napier beach.

Waikato have a backline of stars, but not much up front, while Bay of Plenty shape as a dark horse, though first-five Mike Delaney's late season entry won't be helpful.

Southland have a great draw and the Ranfurly Shield for motivation, Taranaki have backs but not forwards, and the rest will battle to make the all-important top seven.

- © Fairfax NZ News