All Blacks have peaks, plateaus and pressure

OPINION: There is no doubt the All Blacks have exceeded expectations this year.

Heading into this year's Tri-Nations there was a sense of trepidation, especially after last year and this season's Super 14, and it was generally feared they might once again be swept aside by the Springboks machine.

The Tri-Nations, though, has seen the All Blacks as dominant as ever – not just on the scoreboard but also with the exhilarating style they've been playing.

So much so that people are questioning whether the team is peaking too early.

I look to history as a guide on how I think this team is going and I compare it to the All Blacks side in 1996, which was the last truly great All Blacks squad.

The All Blacks had a better record the year after but I think they were at their peak in 1996. That could well be the trend with the current team – they play their best rugby this year and plateau next season.

While some may see that as a concern, it's not necessarily a bad thing because the side of 1996 still recorded better results in 1997.

Also, if you look at the England team of 2003, they played their best rugby in 2002 but still had enough experience to hang in there and win the World Cup.

So if you're looking for patterns, there is enough to suggest that even if the team aren't as good next year they'll still be first across the line at the World Cup.

For the next All Blacks test, against the Wallabies in Sydney in a fortnight, much will be expected of Aaron Cruden, who'll play first-five.

There was a lot expected from him last year too because he came out of the world championship-winning New Zealand under-20 side as player of the tournament.

Talk of him going on the All Blacks end-of-season tour, though, was laughable.

You can't take someone straight out of under-20 rugby and expect them to perform right away at the top level. They need time to develop, which is something Cruden has been able to do. He'll start in Sydney because of Dan Carter's injury and this is a great opportunity. But I don't think we should expect too much from him.

Look at Carter, who could possibly go on to be New Zealand's greatest ever first-five. He spent his first couple of years in the All Blacks playing second-five and it wasn't really until 2005 and the series against the Lions that he proved his worth at No 10.

I hope Cruden performs well and goes on to have a great All Blacks career. But it is premature to expect superb performances from him at this stage.

My preference for the back-up to him in Sydney is Luke McAlister.

He has under-delivered on his potential since returning from England last year but his performances in the New Zealand Maori team were fantastic and he's played well for North Harbour in the NPC.

Given that the pressure is now off him, I suspect he will thrive and deliver on his real potential.

* Taine Randell is a former All Blacks captain

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