Pupils become masters in new world order

The world of rugby willl never be the same again. A seismic shift has occured. The pool matches of the sixth Rugby World Cup are over and I, for one, am left gobsmacked.

It is not that hard in hindsight to rationalise what has happened (and I intend to do that shortly) but before the tournament I had no idea what was happening to the relative playing strength of nations.

I didn't know that Argentina were simply stronger, better organised and mentally tougher than any of the UK nations.

I didn't know that Tonga had the discipline and tactical nouse to get within five points of South Africa and be a genuine chance of making the quarterfinals. Or that Fiji were about to return from 20 years in the World Cup wilderness. After making the quarterfinals in 1987, they haven't looked like doing it again until they emphatically ousted Wales this year.

For every new rugby power rising, an old power has sunk. To sum it up Anglo-Saxons and Celts have given way to Polynesians and Latins. The pupil has become the master and there is no going back.

It is not a matter of Argentina, Tonga and Fiji being lucky - having once-in-a-generation great teams at the right time. No, real and lasting changes have occurred and they will remain. The future looks bleak for the once mighty "Home Nations".

The root cause of this re-ordering of world rugby strength is the professionalistion and globalisation of the game.

None of the leading players of Argentina, Tonga and Fiji play rugby regularly in their own countries. Instead they ply their trade as professionals in the great rugby competitions of the world in Europe and Australasia.

It is clear that what protected the UK nations and kept them in the top flight of world rugby had more to do with the handicaps visited on the emerging nations - lack of funding, coaching and strong regional competitions - than anything else.

The market for rugby talent has done its job. The world's best players, from wherever they hail, have found their way to the world's best competitions and the world's best coaches.

The lack of funding for Pacific Island and South American rugby development has become irrelevant. The sponsors and national unions in Australia, New Zealand, the UK and Europe are paying for the development of their players now.

There couldn't be a more delicious irony. Minor nations, sorely neglected by an IRB dominated by the traditional Home Nation powers, have turfed two (and very nearly three) out of the knock-out stages of the World Cup.

Law changes have also contributed to the rise of the new powers.

With the ball in play more and a premium on aggressive defence and physical power at the tackle and in the backs, the explosive athleticism of the Pacific Island nations becomes all the more effective. The discipline and organisation engendered by professional coaching has done the rest.

Given the fundamental forces at work here I am certain that this is not a flash in the pan for Argentina, Tonga and Fiji - and I think we can expect a redoubled effort from Manu Samoa to join this group.

What will happen is that even more Pacfic Island and Argentine players will gain contracts to play club rugby in Europe and Australasia and a larger pool of international-level talent will be devloped.

Furthermore, with the new Stellenbosch laws on the way, which further reward athleticism and physicality, two teams in the quarterfinals may be as good as it gets for the British rugby nations.

In contrast to the carnage of the northern hemisphere teams the southern hemisphere's big guns moved smoothly through to the knock-out stages.

The Wallabies were little tested. All the top players played well, but the lack of depth was clear to see.

Berrick Barnes is a fine young player, but the return of Stephen Larkham is crucial if the team is to go all the way.

Their opponents in the quarterfinals, England, have been mostly rubbish.

They played well enough at times against Tonga to suggest they might, on a good day, cause Australia some issues with their set pieces and we know Jonny Wilkinson can kick goals, but mostly England have been pitiful defending world champions.

In four pool matches the All Blacks hardly broke a sweat and we know exactly nothing more about their prospects of winning the sixth Rugby World Cup than we knew before the tournament started.

The All Blacks are technically ahead of the rest of the world and for speed and fitness they are only approached by the Wallabies and the Springboks. They have more depth of talent than any other team. But we knew all this a month ago.

Therefore I feel a little uneasy. No team can win the World Cup without a day (or more accurately a half-hour) of reckoning. The time will surely come when the 2007 All Blacks will stand on the edge of the precipice that their 1991, 1995, 1999 and 2003 predecessors have fallen into.

First they must get past a desperate France, but I can't see them having too much trouble in the end.

The French will throw everything at it but the psychological mountain is too high for them to climb.

It is sad for them as hosts and sad for the tournament but the French are going out in Cardiff.

The Springboks will beat Fiji because they have genuine class whereas Wales do not. The Fijians will struggle in the scrum and lineout and the South Africans will make the first time tackles that Wales could not.

The Springboks are getting better and better and loom as genuine contenders for the Cup.

- © Fairfax NZ News