Forget history - it's the future that counts for Henry and Deans

Fairfax Media

MAIN CONTENDERS: Graham Henry, left, will be hoping to beat off Crusaders coach Robbie Deans, right, Waikato's Ian Foster, and Colin Cooper of the Hurricanes for the vacant All Blacks job.

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Duncan Johnstone

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The key to the All Blacks coaching decision should lie in the future more than the past. What can Graham Henry do to revive his All Blacks from their 2007 horrors or how can Robbie Deans stamp his Super 14 authority at the next level?

These are the sort of questions the New Zealand Rugby Union board must demand of their leading candidates as well as unlikely hopefuls Colin Cooper and Ian Foster as the board get set to make the most anticipated coaching appointment of the professional era.

Suggestions that the focus will come off the World Cup disaster and on to the All Blacks as a whole won't necessarily disadvantage Robbie Deans' chances against Graham Henry in the race for the job.

New Zealand Rugby Union director Mike Eagle will chaired the interview process in Wellington on Thursday with the candidates fronting in alphabetical order. Eagle has pointed out that "the World Cup will not be the main focus".

That was emphasised with the NZRU announcing a two-man independent panel to look into the Cup shambles which won't be completed until next April, meaning its findings will have no relevance tomorrow.

"Of course we want to win the World Cup but it is not the be-all-and-end-all. The [board's] priority is the All Blacks' winning record. It has to be maintained in between World Cups," Eagle told the Dominion-Post.

Yes, such a move will certainly aid Henry's cause after he oversaw New Zealand's worst Cup effort with the quarter-final loss to France. That would allow Henry to focus his offensive on his 42 win-six loss record during his four years in charge.

But that shouldn't sound the death knell to Deans who also has a fine record as an All Blacks assistant-coach for two and a bit seasons, winning 22 of 27 matches.

He and his senior coach John Mitchell were responsible for ending the All Blacks' long Bledisloe Cup drought and returning that treasured piece of silverware to New Zealand in emphatic fashion.

Let's face it, given the strength of the New Zealand game, being a winning All Blacks coach isn't that difficult as history shows.

The All Blacks have a winning percentage of 74.13% against all opposition since they played their first test more than 100 years ago. And since the game went professional in 1996 they have won 80.6% of their tests which puts both the Henry and Deans achievements at this level into some perspective.

World Cups must not be taken out of the equation altogether given the emphasis that New Zealand have placed on that tournament during 20 years of failure.

Deans can even point to a better World Cup record than Henry with his semifinal finish in Australia in 2003.

And while Henry has been busy fashioning a highly commendable All Blacks record over the past four years Deans has been doing all that was asked of him at Super 14 level.

His Crusaders have featured in the playoffs every season - winning the 2005 and 2006 titles, finishing second in '04 and making this year's semifinals despite being handicapped by the reconditioning policy imposed by Henry.

Henry, who has also coached Wales and the British and Irish Lions, and Deans (he has four Super rugby titles to his credit) have coaching records and experience that leave Cooper and Foster in their shadows and it's hard to see this being anything other than a two-man race despite the solid efforts of the latter two with the Junior All Blacks.

So there is much to weigh up from two heavyweight contenders. They have rich coaching histories but this should be more about things going forward.

The NZRU board needs to demand from Henry what changes he will make to ensure there is no staleness in his planning or his handling of the team.

Can a 61-year-old keep the All Blacks motivated heading towards the next World Cup? Does he plan to continue his rotation policy or will that be pulled in? Would he ever contemplate another major reconditioning window? Does he want the job for another four years or is he planning to pass the reins to Steve Hansen?

Deans is entering his ninth season as coach of the Crusaders and somehow has managed to keep an edge to his teams. The NZRU will want to know how he plans to do similar with the All Blacks. Can he provide some much-needed substance to go with the style of the All Blacks for the matches that matter most? Who will his assistants be? How can he use the All Blacks to stop the player drain that has become a flood in recent times? Can he improve the PR work that wasn't exactly a hallmark of his previous time with the All Blacks?

The past is the past. It's relevant. But this decision is all about the future.

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