Why I still think the ABs will win

PETER MEECHAM / Fairfax Media

STILL SMILING: A fit-again Conrad Smith has offered a solution at centre.

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Greg Ford

No summer loving for summer footy Even Argentina get a look-in Henry to show his card, but it's marked Henry hears no evil, sees no evil, speaks no evil Ted sends Dingo to the doghouse ABs match against Samoa will be a farce Fiddling with finals won't cure sickness Sell our national game? It really could happen Good on Tew, and Benny too, for saying it straight Heinekens all round and let's buy a Pom club

A number of months ago I wrote a column saying I was convinced the All Blacks would win the Rugby World Cup.

No ifs or buts. They're going to win it. So there. Case closed. Next subject please.

Well, we're a fickle bunch in the media, often (rightfully) accused of leaning which ever way the wind blows. But now, at this critical juncture in the cup I can honestly say nothing, not even Dan Carter's tweaked calf, has given me cause to reconsider my stance. One of the reasons why I'm so convinced is, let's be honest, international rugby is in a parlous state.

Some of the play at this world cup has been worryingly bad: not just from the minnows. England, Samoa, Wales, Ireland, Scotland and Italy have been dreadful. The All Blacks make the aforementioned teams look amateurish on and off the field in terms of performance and preparation.

A few years back before test in Cardiff I interviewed Gareth Thomas. He'd jetted in a few days before playing the All Blacks and was so sore from a club game the night before he couldn't lift his hand to shake mine.

I was stunned and not at all surprised the All Blacks went on to win in a canter a few days later. It wasn't even a fair fight.

To a certain extent it still isn't.

Club commitments are now on hold and most teams have had plenty of time to freshen up and prepare for the tournament. But none have put more time and effort into their preparation. Not even close.

The only concern I do have is the team is a little underdone in terms of match fitness. Some would say massively underdone. But I think this has been blown out of proportion. Coach Graham Henry isn't really a big risk taker. He's introduced some revolutionary thinking into selection. But the trade off he's made to ensure his team has depth is actually minimal.

Because players are now so finely tuned there is now little discernable difference between performance in their first game of the season and the last. Look how well Reuben Thorne played against Scotland last weekend. First-up, having barely played this year, he slotted in like he'd been playing all along.

Steve Hansen mentioned earlier this week there is only a couple of percentage points difference between the All Blacks so called first and second XVs in performance.

He didn't explain how he knew this but I suspect the team has accurate measures of player outputs, rather than going on gut instinct. So Henry probably has some science to back up his continued rotation philosophy.

For the NZRU board to sign off on his reconditioning vision, he must have done.

So the All Blacks should sleep walk their way to the final with plenty of gas in the tank and then seal their fate. If they don't then I'll be throwing eggs at myself. You can join in but don't feel as if you need to.

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