Henry fighting a losing battle?

So Graham Henry is a fighter, not a quitter. Another view on that might be that he's an optimist, not a realist.
Ted confounds the pundits

Despite Monday's deadline-day dramatics, with Henry revealing he was one of seven applicants for the All Blacks coaching job that was opened up by the New Zealand Rugby Union after this year's World Cup failure, it's hard to see how anything has really changed.

Translation: Robbie Deans will still be the next All Blacks coach; Graham Henry the latest World Cup loser to be dumped.

That's my read on the situation; but then again I didn't think Henry would even apply for the job after his bosses showed a lack of faith in him by failing to reappoint him when they had the chance.

The popular view had been that when the NZRU opened the job up for applications, rather than just extending Henry's term as they had made clear was the other option open to them, that the incumbent would take the hint and fall on his sword.

But it appears we have under-estimated Henry's fighting qualities. Certainly his obstinacy. As a result we now have ourselves an election race that could make Clark v Key look like a squabble in the kindergarten sandpit.

Technically we now have seven contenders for the top job. Deans had long ago confirmed his candidature, and gone straight to the top of the bookie's favourite list. Colin Cooper of the Hurricanes and Ian Foster of the Chiefs have also tossed their hats in the ring, while there are three others who at this stage are remaining anonymous. Henry's assistants Steve Hansen and Wayne Smith are not in the mix, both pledging their loyalty to their "boss".

But we all know that this comes down to Henry v Deans. The incumbent going head to head with the most-qualified contender. The Old Dog v the Hot Shot.

Both appear to have strong support from a divided rugby public, with Deans shading Henry in polls that were split reasonably evenly.

But the decision, which will be made some time over the next three or four weeks, will come down to the "knowledgeable" rugby folk who make up the NZRU's board.

Again wisdom says that if they wanted Henry, why wouldn't they have just reappointed him when they had the chance?

Unless there's some sort of political manoeuvring going on. Unless the NZRU have decided that they have had to go through this process just to be seen to be fair, but all along they have the intent of sticking with Father Ted.

If that's the case I will be sickened. Given that the NZRU don't exactly have a healthy record of getting the big calls right (see the new provincial competition for exhibit one) I just can't see how they can afford to go left-field with this one.

And reappointing Henry would qualify as that in my book.

I'm not disrespecting Henry here, though I know I'm not alone in the media as regarding with some sort of dread the prospect of another term with his schoolteacher's disapproval staring down at us at every press conference.

Henry achieved some fine things over his four years as head coach, and his overall record of 42-6 certainly stands the test of scrutiny.

But we need to take two things into account here: he has had four years as All Black coach, and surely that's long enough; also he said all along that he would be judged on his World Cup record, so why don't we take him at his word and do just that?

There's only one aspect of this intriguing story that makes me wonder whether Deans doesn't have more of a fight on his hands than many of us have anticipated. We all know Henry is no fool; in fact quite the opposite.

So for him to stand again he must have done his own sums and figured he's got more than a starter's chance. That makes me just a little nervous.

Maybe the NZRU are split on this one. Maybe it's that close, with a swinging vote or two to decide it.

It would be an extraordinary act of survival if Henry manages to get himself reappointed after presiding over the worst World Cup campaign in All Black history. It would be tantamount to accepting that failure is good enough in New Zealand rugby.

Did England say "all is forgiven" to their football coach Steve McClaren after his Euro nightmare? Like heck they did. They couldn't show him the exit door fast enough.

I just can't see how, given the misjudgements he made in his final term, that there could be any sort of a case made for Henry's reappointment.

He had four long years to build a team to win the World Cup. He got it badly wrong. There is no disputing that. Time, surely, to move on.

Deans also cries out to be handed this opportunity. He's carved a magnificent record in the Super 14, he's served his time, he's even had a taste of test coaching himself (as John Mitchell's assistant) and felt the cruel cut of the axe over a World Cup campaign that was actually more successful than Henry's.

The time is right for Deans to take on the All Blacks, just as the time is right for Henry to accept he gave it his best shot, but it wasn't good enough. What's more, if the NZRU drops the ball here they'll hand New Zealand's best coach straight to the Australians who have made it clear that Deans is their preferred choice to coach the Wallabies.

Maybe that should be the tie-breaker for the NZRU if indeed they are split on this one. If John O'Neill wants the bloke, surely we should too. Surely.

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