Provincial rugby preview

For more than a century, rugby in New Zealand has pitched province versus province for bragging rights over our national winter game.

And, once again, it's time to go back to the mud and the blood and the brawls - this time with a new name: The ITM Cup. Greg Ford runs the rule over this year's competition and picks who's hot and who's not.

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THE RANFURLY SHIELD A little-known fact. If Southland is not the best-paid side in the comp, it is certainly in the top three. The province has ploughed screeds of cash into the bank accounts of its players in recent years. That decision paid a handsome dividend last year when it won the Ranfurly Shield. How long can it hand on to the famous Log o' Wood? Our bet is not long. The Stags easily have already dispatched North Otago and Whanganui. Otago arrive in town to mount a highly anticipated challenge on August 7 followed by Counties a week later. But then the big boys - North Harbour, Auckland, Canterbury and Wellington - all get a crack. Enjoy it while it lasts, Invercargill.

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THE DARK HORSE Time to be blunt. Wellington and Taranaki might be bosom buddies during the super rugby season, but when provincial pride is on the line, hate and other strong emotions are palpable. Which made it all the more surprising to hear capital-based rugby officials last week nervously tipping Taranaki to be a force in this year's competition (perhaps it was because Andrew Hore had just left the bar). The province has recruited well. Coach Colin Cooper is now based in New Plymouth as are players the ilk of David Smith, Tyson Keats and George Pisi. There's a dusting of other top talent in Willie Ripia, Scott Waldrom and Craig Clarke. Taranaki recently claimed the scalp of Waikato, albeit in a warm-up match, to confirm their status as a top contender. Expect other major scalps to join them. --------------------

CONTENDERS It might seem trite to write this given a ball has yet to be kicked in anger but . . . excuse us while we yawn. Canterbury and Wellington in another provincial rugby final. Puh-leeze. Lord. No. Yet that's the unpalatable offering we're faced with on the eve of the ITM Cup, a competition built on provincial pride, at a time when metropolitan New Zealand could not care less. The boys from the bush will rate their chances of an upset or two. But Canterbury and Wellington are ready to again flex their collective rugby muscle. Ominously, Canterbury's team-sheet oozes talent. Isaac Ross, Stephen Brett, Colin Slade, Sean Maitland, George Whitelock, Wyatt Crockett, Ryan Crotty, Robbie Fruean are all class players. Then there's a certain Sonny Bill Williams who will be slotted into a world-class backline. Wellington lost its last two finals to Canterbury on the bounce. This year they don't have as much depth as the red-and- blacks but the Lions are arguably a more rounded squad. Rodney So'oialo will skipper a side which includes Jacob Ellison, Faifili Levave, Serge Lilo, John Schwalger, Jeremy Thrush, Neemia Tialata, Hosea Gear, Michael Hobbs, Charlie Ngatai and Julian Savea. In the best of the rest category, file the names Southland, Hawke's Bay and Auckland, whose squad has been bolstered by the return of Ben Atiga, Daniel Braid and Brent Ward. Waikato, with Stephen Donald and Brendon Leonard at the helm, should make the top four.

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PRETENDERS Chequebook envy is alive and well in the provinces and several have dusted theirs off as mild panic starts to sets in. As of next year, the top and bottom seven teams split into separate divisions. So several have been busy snapping up all available talent to ensure they stay in the big league. Fortunately the arms race was much more sedate than in previous years and four unions - Counties, Manawatu, Northland and Tasman - appear most vulnerable. Former All Black skipper Tana Umaga will make a difference in Pukekohe. But he and the team's other star, Tim Nanai-Williams, look set to be starved of possession behind what is a mediocre pack. Bay of Plenty have made a couple of canny acquisitions and have a good coach in Sean Horan. But the Steamers ran out of puff in recent seasons when the business end of the comp loomed and they should be joined in the bottom seven by North Harbour and Otago (the ignominy of relegation will place further pressure on Dunedin's status as a Super team host city) .

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PLAYERS TO WATCH All eyes will be on Umaga and SBW. There will also be considerable interest in Dan Braid's form and whether he can elevate himself back into the All Blacks. Wellington, however, is confident it has a card to trump all others. Julian Savea was the star of the recent junior world cup. He's big, fast, strong and, when in full flight, demands attention. Keep your eyes peeled for the big wing.

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