Symantec's top 10 threat predictions

At the beginning of the year, computer security firm Symantec took a punt on predicting some of the threats to appear in 2010.

They sent through an interesting release the other day outlining those predictions, and seeing whether they were on track.

Of course, a press release from an antivirus company is likely to encourage the buying of antivirus programs and one might also think that putting a bit of fear into potential customers could also not go astray.

Yeah, maybe I'm a cynic, but that's how marketing works, right?

So I narrowed their list down a bit to ten. There are some interesting bits and pieces in there which give a bit of insight into the current state of malware and virus threats.

Here are a few of their predictions and some of their commentary on whether or not they were right.

1. Antivirus software will not be enough.

They say this is true and that unique variants of malware are growing at such a rate that they eclipse the production of good software.

Symantec reckons they created 2,895,302 new malware signatures last year - a 71 per cent increase from the number they created in 2008. In the first half of 2010 they say they have already created 1.8 million new malware signatures.

You know what always annoyed me? The way that multiple anti-virus programs clash with each other - wouldn't haven't several running at once be best? Anyway...

2. Social engineering as a primary attack form.

Well, I think we can all see that this was a pretty safe bet. Facebook scam groups, dodgy iPhone and Android apps and "click here to see why this boy got expelled" schemes seem to be all over the place.

I would also add that event-based schemes seem to be on the rise. When the World Cup was on, I saw a marked rise in scams trying to prey upon people looking for stats, scores and merchandise. Pretty sneaky.

3. Rogue security software attacks will increase, including hi-jacking and ransom of computers.

So far, they admit, this one was off the ball. While rogue security software attacks are still common, we haven't seen a rise in people's computers being held to ransom just yet.

They also point out that some dodgy operators have been re-branding legitimate free anti-virus software and then selling it for profit - pretty cheeky.

Another thing on the rise is cold-calling to convince people their computer is infected with something - they then say they'll fix it for a price. Devious, malicious and really annoying when you are trying to eat your dinner.

4. Third-party social network apps will increase in fraudulence.

They were mostly spot-on with this pick. Facebook has recently upgraded their application authorisation system to help crack down on this trend.

With the huge rise in popularity for social networks, it's inevitable that scammers will turn to these channels to find new and plentiful targets.

Ever signed up for one of those IQ tests? Apparently one of them was signed to a scam which automatically signed you up to a premium mobile phone service which has a monthly fee.

I see new ones doing the rounds all the time on Facebook, but Twitter seems to not get them as much, from what I have seen.

5. Windows 7 will become a prime target for malware and security threats.

This pick, well... not so much. Symantec admits that only one major attack has been aimed at Windows 7 users so far this year - fewer than they expected. They also note that the fault affected all Windows systems - so it wasn't really a Windows 7 thing.

They describe this pick as "still possible" and say that, in psychological (and economical) terms, hackers and con artists prefer the "path of least resistance" - and it makes sense.

Why spend months trying to hack or exploit Windows 7 when you can set up a phishing scam on Facebook in a few days and have 500 million potential targets?

6. An increase in "fast flux botnets".

A "fast flux botnet" is one which hides compromised computers behind an ever-changing array of IP addresses, as opposed to the traditional botnets which have single IP address.

Apparently the industry is catching on to the traditional versions, and finding ways to block them or even shut them down, so the fast flux method of hiding is gaining traction.

However, Symantec says this pick was also a little off. This goes in the "still possible" basket, as they haven't seen any new major threats arise.

That's not to say there aren't any botnets still out there - apparently the "Storm" type is still common, which uses computers infected with trojan viruses to send out spam.

7. URL shorteners will become the phisherman's friend.

I think this one was a reasonably safe bet. Even by the end of 2009 some services were starting to incorporate link-checking features to deter this kind of thing.

Basically, when you shorten a URL it removes the security of actually being able to see the address you are being directed to. It's a dodgy practice, I try to share whole links if I can, as opposed to shortened ones.

Symantec says 18 per cent of spam now uses shortened links to help achieve their dastardly goals.

8. Mac and mobile malware will increase.

Once again, this one (thankfully) goes into the "still possible" category.

They predicted that, as Mac and smartphones continued to rise in popularity, more scammers would devote time to finding holes in these kinds of systems.

Apparently note - they say it hasn't been on the increase in the way which they thought it would, and also note that iOS devices continue to be mostly secure from a client perspective.

I must say, though, that it depends what you consider a threat. A story I read yesterday said masses of apps, both iPhone and Android, ship your info off to third parties.

9. Spammers starting to break the rules - selling your info etc.

Symantec notes an increase in "grey mail" - things like newsletters which do have an opt-out function, but which you never signed up for in the first place.

If you start to get things like this, you have to wonder where they got your email in the first place... or who gave it to them, more like.

I think we are becoming quite aware of what information we put on the web these days, especially following the Facebook privacy debate. That has to be a good thing.

10. Spam will fluctuate as the war between spammer and anti-spammer will escalates.

They say this prediction is a bulls-eye.

As authorites and responsible ISPs act to fight spam, spammers search for different ways to attack - like shortened URLs and social networks. This makes the spam levels rise and fall as the battle continues.

Right now, I feel like the spammers are doing some good damage - I've noticed heaps of spam being caught in my Hotmail filter, which isn't listed anywhere - cheap medication, russian brides, oil deals and the like.

They also note that a major victory this year was the shutting down of the Mariposa botnet - the suspected creator of which has been arrested just this week. Good work, boys (and girls).

What do you think? Do you worry about the security of your systems? Have you ever been scammed? Any good security tips?

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