The lure of the lucky country

With so many Kiwis shifting to a new life across the Tasman, the question may no longer be one of why are they going, as much as why aren't the rest of us following? JOHN McCRONE reports.

The lucky country. You have to admit that despite the drought, the flies, the grating accents, Australia has it.

A booming economy, political clout, sporting success across the board, confidence to burn. Why, it has even dumped its chippy right-wing leader for someone most Kiwis would find rather more acceptably green and liberal.

So time to pack your bags and head for Sydney or Coolangatta, like nearly half a million other New Zealanders? Surely by now the decision is a no brainer?

For youngsters especially, life boils down to money and opportunities. And the gap between our two countries has become such that Australia just seems like a free upgrade from economy to business class, no matter what your trade.

Statistics New Zealand reports 27,200 Kiwis crossed the Tasman last year, a third more than in 2006, making it the biggest spike in departures since 1988. A whopping 63 per cent of the leavers were under 30.

Around one in 10 New Zealanders now live in Australia. And for Maori, the number rises to one in seven (many saying they want to escape the pressures of whanau and tribal expectation as much as seek out opportunity). By contrast, only one in 350 Aussies live over here. The turnstile has been clacking in one direction only.

Philippa Mein Smith, a Canterbury University historian specialising in the trans-Tasman relationship, says this past year's surge in departures is all the more remarkable as New Zealand has been enjoying economic good times with historic low unemployment.

Mein Smith says migration figures can be taken as an accurate barometer of the relative standings of our two countries: "Migrants move for a better life. That's universal."

So it seems New Zealand may be doing OK, but Australia is booming out of sight. Heaven help us if our fortunes were actually to slump. What could stem the exodus then?

Mein Smith says there have been eras when the flow has been in the other direction.

In the early 1960s, New Zealand was the lucky country and it was hard- pressed Aussies queuing to get in. But that was about the last time.

Mein Smith picks up a chart showing the pulses in trans-Tasman migrations over the past few decades.

"From about the mid-60s was when we lost our economic parity with Australia. And you can see the numbers get pronounced in the late '70s. In 1979, there was a much bigger outflow than even now.

"There was fast-rising unemployment and negativity under Muldoon. Likewise, there was another period in the late 1980s with Rogernomics, the SOE Act, and massive structural changes that made things gloomy," she says.

The story has been that both countries have faced much the same world economic cycles over the years. But New Zealand, as the lightweight partner, gets sucked down deeper into the troughs and rises less exuberantly on the upswings. So, with each go- around, the economic gulf widens. And people vote with their feet.

The figures do not lie. Australia has managed to pull off 17 years of continuous growth, averaging 3.6% a year. And despite global credit-crunch worries, commentators see no reason why 2008 will break that run.

Australia has become a fantastically attractive destination. Another barometer is the flight of money itself. As a politically-stable, economically- strong, strategically-positioned nation, foreign direct investment (FDI) has been pouring in.

Overseas investors want to put their money into Australia even if it costs them a premium. FDI is growing at 20% a year, far outstripping other countries like China, Singapore, Japan and the United States.

Total foreign investments now stand at $281 billion.

The question, of course, is how much better off would you be if you joined the stampede? Does Australia's happy economic picture translate directly into more dollars in the pocket?

This is a tricky calculation as it depends on the cost of living and exchange rates as much as wages. There are also other factors. Immigrants often have to take a large backward career step to get established in a new country.

A two-yearly Government study – the 120-page Economic Development Indicators report released just before Christmas – contains some of the answers.

For a start, it confirms that pay packets in Australia are indeed nearly a third fatter. Where the average weekly earnings of a full-time worker in New Zealand is $NZ906, in Australia it ranges from $NZ1030 in Tasmania to around $NZ1250 in New South Wales and Western Australia.

Some of the differential is swallowed up by Australian house prices and supermarket bills. But not that much. Cost-of-living indexes, such as one compiled by international employment consultant Mercer, show smaller Australian cities like Adelaide and Brisbane rank much the same as Auckland or Christchurch.

It is only when you head for Melbourne or Sydney that you see a real hike in living expenses.

Mercer says Melbourne costs 12% more than Auckland; Sydney 28% more.

However, once the even-higher pay scales in those cities is taken into account, relocating should still feel like an immediate lifestyle upgrade.

Another indicator of relative living costs is The Economist magazine's famous Big Mac index, based on how many McDonald's hamburgers you can afford on the average wage – Big Macs being a global commodity product.

Where in New Zealand the average weekly pay packet would buy you 203 burgers, in Australia it would get you 280 – a 38% beef-patty bonus.

Nor is it that likely Kiwi immigrants would have to take a backward step. Most job qualifications are mutually recognised. Language and culture is not an issue.

And a population of 21 million creates more opportunities. Unlike immigrants arriving in New Zealand, Kiwis are hardly likely to find their skills too specialised and end up driving taxis.

So when it comes to earnings and careers, it seems definitely "green for go, cleared for take off". What else is there to hold Kiwis back?

Some may feel Australia is too hot and dry, lacking seasons. However, hot and dry is also something a lot of Kiwis heading for Bondi or Surfers are only too happy to put up with.

Then there is the fear of how the natives may react to the flood of arriving New Zealanders. Yet all reports are that Kiwis are welcomed.

Sydney writer and commentator Peter Macinnis says xenophobic- minded locals have plenty of other targets, "like the Arabs and Pacific islanders".

New Zealanders are not even patronised as the hick country cousins. Macinnis says that honour is reserved for Tasmanians.

Macinnis says, as an old leftie, that there is plenty he could complain about and which might give migrating Kiwis pause for thought, such as Australia's role in the Iraq war and its record on environmental and aboriginal causes.

Traffic is something else to beware of. Aucklanders may moan, yet studies show the rush-hour jams in Sydney, Melbourne and even Adelaide are worse.

But Macinnis has to admit Australia has never seemed in such a buoyant mood. Following the US, it has become more materialistic, more urban. But if it has problems like water shortages or ethnic tensions, it also feels it has the money to throw at solving them.

New Zealand is a country run on a shoe-string. As a big farm, the old farm mentality of "mend and make do" applies across all public life. But Australia has been pumping cash into its universities and theatres for years.

Once a philistine nation, support for its culture is where the upgrade from economy class to business will be very apparent to new arrivals.

Macinnis says Australia is also aware of its rise up the political league table. The willingness to be the US's "deputy sheriff" when it came to Iraq was one example, although not widely celebrated.

The new Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, has put an even greater spring in the country's step, he says. "Now that Kev's in power, there's the feeling we are going to finally tackle the problems we've been ignoring, like the environment and climate change."

A ustralia feels good about itself. And it is getting harder to find definite reasons against booking a ticket on the next jet. Could it be only family ties and inertia that are keeping the remaining nine out of 10 Kiwis tethered? How many more New Zealanders have to make the break before it becomes a full-blown crisis?

Mein Smith, who has been back and forth across the Tasman a few times for various academic postings, is relaxed about this year's spike in departures. She sees it from quite a different perspective. Much of it comes down to us now being the de facto ninth state of Australasia she says.

With effectively no borders or passport control, and the Single Economic Market (SEM) agreement in place, New Zealand now fits in quite neatly at the state level. Mein Smith says few Kiwis realise it, but when the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) meet, New Zealand is also at the table.

"We don't go to the meeting of the state premiers. But we are there at the ministerial level meetings. And we can vote."

Mein Smith says once we view ourselves as just another mid-size Australian state, then the migration patterns seem rather less exceptional.

As pointed out in December's Economic Development Indicators report, the flows from New Zealand to Australia are easily matched by flows between Australia's various states. At the moment, New South Wales and Tasmania are emptying, Queensland and Western Australia drawing the crowds. Sunshine and minerals are shifting the centre of gravity for the whole of Australasia.

And then there is the international story. People and jobs have simply become more mobile, says Mein Smith. The best are willing to travel as far as it takes to get the right job and training.

Thinking about her own family, Mein Smith says she has a stepson in Toulouse, a niece in Beijing, a brother in Hong Kong.

Australia is often just the first stepping stone for today's young. So it is not some unfair game of economic muscle where Australia is managing to lure away all our future talent. It is only getting the proportion of footloose Kiwis you might expect from it being the country right on our doorstep.

The latest figures suggest the exodus is accelerating again.

Many agree the decision has become a no-brainer. There may not be a lot that can be done about it except to keep the doors open to the world and welcome enough newcomers to top up for those moving on.

- © Fairfax NZ News