Less chance of big aftershocks - forecasts

ANNA TURNER
Last updated 09:21 16/10/2012

Relevant offers

Christchurch Earthquake 2011

Government misses red zone clearance target Christ Church Cathedral a 'symbol of negativity' New Christchurch rebuild bosses to be revealed Rollerblader captures Christchurch on film prior to ruinous earthquakes Red zoners set for more compo Gerry Brownlee: Southern Response lawsuit 'opportunistic' Alan Reay cleared of CTV building deception claims Canterbury earthquake repair survey a 'whitewash' Demolition of Cathedral Square's Camelot Hotel captured in timelapse Photographs show rebuild progress in post-quake Christchurch

There is less than a one in a hundred chance of a magnitude-7.0 or higher earthquake hitting Canterbury in the next year, latest forecasts show.

GNS Science has released its latest quake forecasts for the Canterbury aftershock region, which show the probability of significant aftershocks have steadily declined since January.

In the year to October 9, 2013, there is less than a 1 per cent probability of a magnitude-7.0 quake or higher. This is down from a 1 per cent probability forecast last month.

There is a 3 per cent probability of a magnitude-6.5 to 6.9 aftershock, which is unchanged from August. This is down from a predicted 4 per cent probability last January.

There is a 9 per cent probability of a magnitude-6.0 to 6.4 aftershock, which is unchanged from September and down from 13 per cent in January.

There is a 30 per cent probability of a magnitude-5.5 to 5.9 aftershock, down 1 per cent from August. This is down from a predicted 39 per cent in January.

There is a 71 per cent probability of a magnitude-5.0 to 5.4 aftershock, compared with 72 per cent in August and 82 per cent in January.

GNS Science, which reviews its quake forecasts every month, noted that the calculations were for the entire aftershock zone and not just Christchurch.

Ad Feedback

- The Press

Comments

Special offers
Opinion poll

Which memorial design do you like most?

Memorial Wall with a reflective pond

Table and Chairs

A Green and Peaceful Landscape

Call and Response

Riverside Promenade

A Curved and Inclusive Memorial Wall

Vote Result

Related story: Christchurch earthquake memorial designs unveiled

Featured Promotions

Sponsored Content