Less chance of big aftershocks - forecasts

ANNA TURNER
Last updated 09:21 16/10/2012

Relevant offers

Christchurch Earthquake 2011

'Special little symbols of hope' Japanese PM Shinzo Abe visits CTV site Hands grasped on holy ground Christchurch: A tale of two cities Our 'new normal' is a reality show Human right abuse claims spike after quakes River site tipped for quake memorial Dramatic role just part of the job for Cera Online consultation scheme gains interest Reality check on Christchurch town hall cost

There is less than a one in a hundred chance of a magnitude-7.0 or higher earthquake hitting Canterbury in the next year, latest forecasts show.

GNS Science has released its latest quake forecasts for the Canterbury aftershock region, which show the probability of significant aftershocks have steadily declined since January.

In the year to October 9, 2013, there is less than a 1 per cent probability of a magnitude-7.0 quake or higher. This is down from a 1 per cent probability forecast last month.

There is a 3 per cent probability of a magnitude-6.5 to 6.9 aftershock, which is unchanged from August. This is down from a predicted 4 per cent probability last January.

There is a 9 per cent probability of a magnitude-6.0 to 6.4 aftershock, which is unchanged from September and down from 13 per cent in January.

There is a 30 per cent probability of a magnitude-5.5 to 5.9 aftershock, down 1 per cent from August. This is down from a predicted 39 per cent in January.

There is a 71 per cent probability of a magnitude-5.0 to 5.4 aftershock, compared with 72 per cent in August and 82 per cent in January.

GNS Science, which reviews its quake forecasts every month, noted that the calculations were for the entire aftershock zone and not just Christchurch.

Ad Feedback

- The Press

Comments

Special offers
Opinion poll

Should the Canterbury Provincial Council buildings be restored?

Yes, they are NZ's best example of high Victorian gothic revival architecture.

Only if the cost can be brought down.

No, $70 million could be used for more important things.

Vote Result

Related story: Provincial chambers repair bill $70m

Featured Promotions

Sponsored Content