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Less chance of big aftershocks - forecasts

Last updated 09:21 16/10/2012

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Christchurch Earthquake 2011

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There is less than a one in a hundred chance of a magnitude-7.0 or higher earthquake hitting Canterbury in the next year, latest forecasts show.

GNS Science has released its latest quake forecasts for the Canterbury aftershock region, which show the probability of significant aftershocks have steadily declined since January.

In the year to October 9, 2013, there is less than a 1 per cent probability of a magnitude-7.0 quake or higher. This is down from a 1 per cent probability forecast last month.

There is a 3 per cent probability of a magnitude-6.5 to 6.9 aftershock, which is unchanged from August. This is down from a predicted 4 per cent probability last January.

There is a 9 per cent probability of a magnitude-6.0 to 6.4 aftershock, which is unchanged from September and down from 13 per cent in January.

There is a 30 per cent probability of a magnitude-5.5 to 5.9 aftershock, down 1 per cent from August. This is down from a predicted 39 per cent in January.

There is a 71 per cent probability of a magnitude-5.0 to 5.4 aftershock, compared with 72 per cent in August and 82 per cent in January.

GNS Science, which reviews its quake forecasts every month, noted that the calculations were for the entire aftershock zone and not just Christchurch.

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- The Press


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