Desperate last gasp for Goff?

BY COLIN ESPINER, POLITICAL EDITOR

Nurse, pass the defibrillator.

Labour leader Phil Goff's speech on "nationhood" has applied the paddles to the nearly lifeless corpse that is his 2011 prime ministerial ambition. Now he must try to find a pulse.

He didn't find it last night, when TVNZ's latest Colmar Brunton poll delivered sobering news on the health of Goff's leadership status: his personal popularity has almost halved, from an already precarious 9 per cent to just five.

That is dangerously close to the all-time low of 2 per cent recorded by his predecessor Helen Clark back in 1994, and if Goff wants to look on the bright side, Clark proved that a comeback from the political death zone is indeed possible.

Meanwhile, Labour itself is flat- lining at 31 per cent, 22 points behind National - a position essentially unchanged from two months ago.

The poll will come as a bitter disappointment for Labour as it coincides with a torrid couple of months for the Government.

During the past eight weeks, thousands of bikers have descended on Parliament to protest huge increases in ACC fees, Maori Party MP Hone Harawira gave the middle finger to middle New Zealand, the emissions trading scheme (ETS) was rammed through Parliament under urgency, and Labour accused the Government of dirty deals with the Maori Party.

Some of this was undoubtedly "beltway" politics.

The public will care about the ETS, but probably not until it hits our wallets some time next year, at the petrol pump and in our power bills.

How National managed to force the legislation through Parliament - by offering to settle essentially unrelated legal wrangles between the Crown and iwi in return for the Maori Party's five votes - was outrageous. But it was also fiendishly complicated, and the average voter might well have got lost somewhere in Climate Change Minister Nick Smith's third or fourth attempt at explaining why it was in fact kosher.

Harawira's racial outburst was definitely not beltway politics, and struck a nerve throughout the country. However, it appears that it is the Maori Party that has suffered the damage from this, while National has escaped unscathed, despite being essentially in coalition.

Likewise, the bikers made lots of noise and their appearance in the capital made good telly, but no matter how annoyed anyone is about the hike in ACC levies, it's not a subject that's likely to shift many votes.

Even so, Labour might have expected some reward for a couple of months hard work, during which time it has tested the Government (on occasion) for probably the first time since National took office.

The fact that Goff reached for the nuclear option last week, in the form of a speech on "nationhood" (read race relations) makes it clear that even before Colmar Brunton's latest report, which came too late to include reaction to the speech, Labour's own internal polling was telling it the news was not good.

Goff's speech to Greypower in Palmerston North on Thursday followed the tried-and-trusted formula of other politicians who have gone to the well of Pakeha grievance over the place of some Maori in our society:

First, warn that "New Zealand is at a crossroads". Then, refer to the "rich tapestry of our heritage" and raise the prospect of "reopening old wounds and divisions" if current policies persist, and third, "strongly reject" the grievance industry and call for "healing".

Then, after the speech is delivered, vehemently deny playing the race card, and challenge any journalist who suggests otherwise to find even one passage that is either divisive or racist.

It's precisely what Bill English tried when he was leader of the National Party, except that no-one listened because English couldn't pull it off. Winston Peters was a master at it but returned to the well one too many times, and Don Brash was so successful National leapt 17 points in a week when he delivered the now- infamous Orewa speech in 2004.

Such was the tinderbox ignited by Orewa that it nearly cost Labour the 2005 election; indeed, Clark later opined to this correspondent that if Brash had delivered it a year later, National would certainly have won.

In a nutshell Goff's speech says National's preferential treatment of Maori over the ETS and the foreshore and seabed - and Harawira - are likely to reopen racial wounds.

Railing against the ETS, Goff mentions "pork bone" politics, a play on "pork-barrel", which, while referenced to his Maori colleague Shane Jones, is a stereotyped jibe at Maori fondness for pork while at the same time hinting at sweetheart deals for a favoured few.

In case this was too subtle, Goff follows up by saying "some corporates saw the chance for a handout and naturally they've taken it". He means Ngai Tahu, although he doesn't have to say so.

Goff goes on to say he opposed a special deal for Rio Tinto too, but this hardly balances the ledger. He didn't deliver a whole speech on the Bluff aluminum smelter. And he adds a line that could have come from Brash himself: "We must address grievance, but we must not sustain it."

So put down the phone, Phil, the speech was classic race politics.

The question is, will it work? We know it can, because it has before. But Goff has neither Peters' snake-oil charm nor Brash's colonial tea- planter's honesty. It's also the diametric opposite of what Labour argued when in office, and Goff was a senior player in that administration.

Even if the largely white, working- class battlers Goff is appealing to believe he means what he says, they may wonder about his ability to do anything about it.

There's also the question of timing. Lighting a fire under race relations requires precisely the right conditions, including a groundswell of resentment and a soapbox from which to deliver the message. Brash's Orewa speech was delivered during the news vacuum of the summer holidays; Goff was trying to make his point during a busy news week.

Even if it does work, the poll spikes from this style of rhetoric tend to be temporary. It's like using firestarters on a barbecue - you quickly need more solid fuel to keep the flames burning. And it's still a long way to the next election.

Then there's the issue of collateral damage to consider. Goff's speech has caused much angst in Labour. If it ends up winning votes all may be forgiven - if it doesn't, the rumblings of discontent will grow louder.

Finally, there's Labour's relationship with the Maori Party. Goff's speech has deeply angered them, and while all's fair in political warfare, Labour will almost certainly need the Maori vote if it is to have any chance of winning in 2011.

The defection of Maori from Labour in 2008, to both National and the Maori Party, was a key factor in its defeat. Goff's speech could lose as many votes as it gains.

- © Fairfax NZ News