First strike of political year to Goff

Labour leader Phil Goff appears more relaxed and focused, writes COLIN ESPINER.

In the battle for media attention at the tail end of the silly season, it's one- nil to Labour leader Phil Goff.

This perhaps surprising state of affairs has come about through a combination of Prime Minister John Key's decision to largely keep his head down and let the year start without him, and some sensible politics by Goff.

Although for many of us the Christmas holidays are but a distant memory, Parliament is still officially in recess, which means there is a lack of political news to "feed the beast" that is the daily news cycle.

That's why opposition leaders have for many years now delivered "state of the nation" speeches in late January, hoping their words will achieve a cut- through they simply wouldn't get at any other time of the year.

It certainly used to work for former National leader Don Brash, whose speeches at a certain Rotary Club north of Auckland became so famous (or possibly infamous) that they are now simply referred to as "Orewa".

Goff chose a rowing club in Hamilton for his address last week and, while he only made the second or third break in the evening television news bulletins, he delivered a speech that will at least have Labour supporters taking an interest again after a year of indifference.

The speech, entitled The Many - Not the Few, wasn't quite Obama, but it did sum up Goff's position in a post-Helen Clark world better than any other he has made since taking over as leader after the last election.

Someone has clearly body- snatched the Labour leader and replaced him with someone more relaxed, humorous and focused.

Goff centred his remarks on the plight of struggling Kiwis trying to make ends meet after a year of pay freezes, job losses and mortgagee sales. He claimed that while the worst of the recession was over, employers were still using it as an excuse to roll back wages and conditions, while the Government was sitting by and doing little to help.

"The benefits of the recovery and the proposed tax changes must be shared fairly. It can't just be a party on the top floor while everyone else does it tough."

Goff singled out public-sector chief executives' pay, saying none of them should be paid more than the Prime Minister, who gets about $400,000 a year.

It was perhaps an odd example, given the practice throughout most democracies is to underpay leaders, who are supposed to be in public service for reasons other than money, and pay top dollar for the best people to head up government departments.

But while Key, and some commentators, sneered at Goff for such a populist suggestion, it will have resonated nicely in the country's blue-collar workplaces. It's probable many Kiwis don't know that 14 state chief executives earn more than $400,000, and they might well think it's outrageous that they do.

Of course, it's a bit rich for Goff to point this out when he and his party did nothing about this state of affairs for the nine years they were in office. Doubly so, in fact, given National has actually frozen state chief executives' pay in the past year, which is more than Labour did.

But the great thing about changing leaders when in Opposition is that it does give you the ability to change policy direction, even if Goff was sitting around the Cabinet table for most of the past decade.

Key has explained several of his own shifts in thinking - such as around climate change and Working for Families - by saying he was previously following his predecessor's line.

Goff also made sure he gave "bludgers" a swipe as well, including ACC beneficiaries "ripping off" ACC, as well as Christchurch's Harris family, who were revealed before Christmas to have been receiving sickness and unemployment benefits for 25 years.

It's impossible to imagine Clark using terms such as "bludgers" in a speech, and the term hints at a willingness by Goff to drag Labour back towards its blue-collar roots and away from the hand-wringing socially liberal policies that were synonymous with the party under Clark.

Goff won't have lit a fire under the Beehive with his speech, but that wasn't really his intention. With the best part of two years still to run until the next election, it's all about positioning at this stage, and Goff has set Labour up well for 2010.

By claiming to represent "the many" (and by implication, leaving the Government to represent "the few") Labour can and will demand National look after the bulk of lower and middle-income taxpayers in this year's Budget and criticise them if they do not.

If National makes radical changes to the tax system or goes ahead with the spending cuts threatened by Finance Minister Bill English, Labour will hammer the Government for looking after its rich mates at the expense of ordinary Kiwis.

If, on the other hand, Key's natural caution stays English's sword, then Goff will criticise the Government for sitting on its hands.

National has obligingly served up a free hit early in the year, with its miserly minimum wage adjustment playing into Labour's hands. Although 25c an hour represents a 2 per cent wage increase or $10 a week - which is more than many New Zealanders on higher wages got last year - it does have a slightly Marie Antoinette ring to it.

Labour Minister Kate Wilkinson's rationale for the smallest increase in many years was that she did not want to "price" the low-paid out of the employment market, and that any higher award would have led to job losses. This argument won't wash with the union movement.

However, this won't worry Goff one bit, and neither will National's confrontational approach over another union bugbear - national standards in schools.

Key has made it clear he intends to push this controversial policy through over the dead bodies of the NZEI and the PPTA, and any fight between the Government and the unions over this has to be good news for the Opposition.

Of course, solidifying Labour's unionist vote is really only the start of the battle for Goff. That might shore up the party and his position as its leader, but it's not going to win him the 100,000-odd votes Labour needs to get within coo- ee of National at the next election.

Goff's biggest problem remains Key, who is resolutely refusing to be pushed around by the impatient hotheads in Cabinet and the financial heavyweights who underwrite National's campaigns. They want much more radical change than Key is prepared to contemplate.

Yet, so stratospheric is Key's personal poll rating and his stature in the party generally that he can dismiss anything that might give Goff something to really sink his teeth into.

As a political manager, Key is rapidly proving himself to be every bit as good as Clark.

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