What we've stored for winter will determine the months ahead

In southern New Zealand, the Maori new year began with the early morning rising of Puaka, or Rigel in late May. It could be seen in the South Island a few days before it was seen further north and a few days before Matariki, or Pleiades, was also seen in the east at dawn. A sighting of Puaka heralded the onset of winter, a time of subdued activity and restraint following the year's busiest harvest period known as Kahuru Kai Paeka – the month of food storing.

During February and March, the eels, in such places as Birdlings Flat and Lake Ellesmere, would run in their thousands to the sea from inland waterways. Small streams and waterways would writhe and bubble with the slimy flesh of migratory eels all heading for the ocean as part of their breeding cycle. They would descend upon the lagoon lakes and then crawl across the gravel spits trying to find the sea. In an effort to confuse them, Maori dug out blind channels from the lake facing the ocean. The eels swam into the channels and, in the early hours of the morning, Maori fishermen would gaff them, flipping them on to the shingle banks. In the morning, the eels were split and dried in preparation for long term storage as supplies for the winter months.

Right now, on small islands off the coast of Stewart Island, hundreds of Ngai Tahu people are gathering small, feathery sea birds know as muttonbirds, or titi. They put them into buckets and send them back to the mainland for trading. Historically, they were placed in kelp bags and then stored for up to 12 months as provisions for winter. During the harvest season, the birders would gorge themselves to the point of poor health as they piled on the fat preparing for the chilly onset of frost and snow.

New Zealand's natural cycle was well understood by Maori and they ensured they were prepared for the lean period. They stored as much as they possibly could and winter was generally well catered for. The food was utilised sparingly and the cold months were set aside for educating the young in the whare wananga. It was the period immediately after winter that was toughest.

Spring, known as Te Kana o Kaikore, the Gathering Period of Scarce Food, was when families struggled the most. The stored food was running out and rationing was implemented whilst the whanau waited for the eels to return to the rivers and the whitebait to start running. If there had not been enough hard work during autumn, a miscalculation of what was required or some unforeseen event then the people starved. There was still fish in the sea and birds in the trees but to rely on this as a source of food during lean periods was to accept a hand-to-mouth existence. This burnt up far too much precious energy during a time when there was limited ability to replenish what was being used. Preparing in advance was the best way to avoid the most difficult of times.

If you currently scan the horizon of our economy, you will surely catch a glimpse of Puaka and the signs are far from propitious. Interest rates are escalating, food and fuel prices are on the increase, the real estate bubble has popped and finance companies are dropping like flies. Other businesses are closing down and unemployment is sure to rise for those with the least skills, while, at the same time, families will struggle. At one end of the demographic spectrum, we have an elderly population that will become increasingly dependent on the state's resources. Although they are comparatively healthy and many have personal savings to support them, the stretching longevity, new health technologies and the sheer numbers of elderly will seriously pressure available health and elderly care funding. At the other end of the spectrum, we have a sky-rocketing birth rate. This will challenge midwifery and maternity services nationally as well as our early education infrastructure. But of most concern is that the two ballooning strata of our demographic pyramid are in the non-productive sectors of our population. Every working age individual is going to be carrying more and more dependents.

I, like many other New Zealander's, do feel good about owning our airports and, now, our railways. But is this the right time to be buying up assets that we currently have no expertise in running and that require millions of dollars of investment to become the type of rail system the nation needs?

New Zealand has the worst savings record in the OECD, although the introduction, and subsequent uptake, of Kiwi Saver has been remarkably promising. One can hope that the surpluses produced over the past few years are tucked away in a safe place as winter is imminent and what has been stored away for the dark months will determine how well we survive.