Editorial: Progress in Iraq

OPINION: With so much attention focused on the violence in Afghanistan, there is a risk of downplaying significant events in Iraq, notably its recent election.

The result of this election, in terms of the shape of the coalition which will govern the nation, is likely to take weeks or even months of deal-making.

But the manner in which the election was conducted is one of the most positive developments in Iraq since the United States and its "coalition of the willing" allies toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003. US President Barack Obama could ultimately be proved correct when he declared that the election was an important milestone in Iraq's history.

The most notable feature of the election was the turnout which defied many observers' expectations by reaching 62 per cent. This figure might not seem high by New Zealand standards, but it is worth reflecting that it is comparable to the most recent US election.

The turnout suggests that many Sunnis chose to vote after boycotting the previous poll in 2005 and after complaints that they had been locked out of political life since the US-led invasion. Their participation in the election gives grounds for optimism about the future of democracy in Iraq.

But so, too, does the fact that the strong turnout came despite warnings from al Qaeda that voters would face terrorist attacks. In the event there were attacks in Baghdad and several other cities which claimed 38 lives, but not the widespread violence that some had feared.

It was also encouraging that thus far there have been few credible allegations of vote rigging or electoral intimidation.

The positive signs emerging from this election are all the more surprising in the context of the controversy and violence in Iraq's recent history. The US-led invasion was justified by claims that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction, which were never proved, although there was no doubt that he was guilty of crimes against humanity.

There were also questions over the legality of the invasion, which led some nations, including New Zealand, not to participate.

Since Saddam was ousted, then executed, Iraq has been blighted by sectarian violence and terrorist attacks which have claimed numerous casualties among the civilian population and military personnel.

Doubts had also risen over the ability of Iraq's own police and military to provide adequate security and whether the sectarian rifts could ever permit democracy to flourish in Iraq.

This latter question has been partly answered by this week's election. The full answer will not be known until a new coalition government has been formed, with the likely prime minister being either the incumbent, Nouri al-Maliki, or Ayad Allawi, a secular Shia leader.

Maliki is regarded as the front-runner, especially if he can bring Kurds and a significant number of Sunni politicians into a new government.

The US will be watching developments with huge interest. Renewed political instability or violence could force it to reconsider its commitment to withdraw all its soldiers from Iraq by the end of next year. And for foreign policy and domestic political reasons a deferral is the last thing the Obama Administration would want.

- © Fairfax NZ News