Editorial: Central government's support needed

OPINION: Cantabrians can feel encouraged by John Key's assurance this week that the Christchurch rebuild is at the top of his priority list for the next three years.

But they should also remember that it is not only Prime Minister Key who will need to be convinced about the importance of our city.

We will also need the support of the prime minister after him and the next one, and the next one. The next three years is only the beginning.

In his state of the economy talk in Auckland on Thursday, Key said the coming year would be about starting to rebuild a strong and vibrant new Christchurch.

He said $5.5 billion from last year's Budget and an entire government department – Cera – was devoted to the recovery effort.

He gave an assurance that the special powers invested in Cera would be used to remove any "blockages in the system".

This is all enormously encouraging but figures in Key's address should also give us pause for thought.

He said 70 per cent of the nearly 1357 buildings approved for partial or full demolition in greater Christchurch had already been brought down.

What he didn't address was this: how long will it take to refill all these empty spaces?

While the demolition phase is progressing rapidly, the rebuilding phase is really yet to begin.

The odd new building is going up here and there, but there is much still to be done before the full rebuild can get under way, and there are still "blockages", not least the difficult insurance environment in the city.

It is anyone's guess how rapidly new buildings will appear when the promised reconstruction is going full steam, but just imagine one possibly optimistic scenario: let's say that in a good year we might see one new building completed every week.

The simple arithmetic suggests that, at that rate, it will take more than a quarter of a century to replace the buildings that have already come down, or which are earmarked for partial or full demolition.

To be honest, Key might put the Christchurch rebuild at the top of his priority list – and we are grateful for that – but it will probably not be his administration which will have the bulk of the rebuilding to oversee.

And who will be the planners and designers and architects and builders and engineers who will finish the job? They may well be the primary school children who return to their classes on Monday.

Likewise, Key has indicated that more than 45,000 new homes will be needed in the greater Christchurch area. That is not the work of a year, or even a decade. It may well keep the drills and hammers going for a generation or more.

There is much cause for optimism in all this, nevertheless. The rebuild means new jobs, growth and opportunities. Some Christchurch people have left, driven away by the effect of the continuing earthquakes, but others have begun to arrive to help in the reconstruction.

The tragedy of February 22, 2011 will have felt like the end for many, and it swept away much that was treasured and familiar.

As time mellows the sense of loss, however, and a new city rises with – we hope – a new sense of optimism and vibrancy, the disaster will also be seen to have been transforming.

We can never forget those people we have lost, of course, but what we rebuild will in one sense be rebuilt in their honour.

However, there will no doubt be difficulties. Not the least of these is the short to medium-term danger of capital flight, as investors seek opportunities elsewhere if they cannot get an immediate return from Christchurch. The future course of the commercial property market is also uncertain.

Over the longer term, it is unlikely that the rebuilding can be sustained consistently through the normal ups and downs of the economic cycle.

There may well be periods of relative stagnation – as there were in other New Zealand cities which were heavily rebuilt through the boom-and-bust years of the 1980s.

All of this means that Christchurch may need the help and attention of central government into the indefinite future. Key's support now is valued, but it provides no long-term guarantees.

That in turn gives us another reason to need stong-minded and capable leaders in Canterbury's local government, if only to keep lobbying our case in Wellington long into the future.

- © Fairfax NZ News