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The Andrill rig in Antarctica.

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Polar scientists are united on sea level rise, but are still debating how much and when, reports ROB FENWICK .

When 2500 polar scientists gathered in Oslo last week to compare notes at the conclusion of the International Polar Year, a common thread ran through their presentations and papers: "Unless we better understand the probable melt rate of ice in Antarctica and Greenland we haven't a hope of being adequately prepared for the inevitable sea level rise in the decades ahead."

The conference, which was the largest gathering of polar scientists ever, saw satellite data from both poles including images and ice elevation calculations which confirmed the annual melt in the Arctic and Antarctica was faster over the last summers than most had predicted.

Antarctic geologists from New Zealand, key players in the Andrill drilling project in the Ross Sea, explained how the rate of ice melt would not be linear. Rather, there will be a cumulative, run-away effect as the greenhouse influence raises ocean temperatures, shifts ocean currents and alters the frequency of climatic events.

Data from Andrill enables scientists around the world to predict what is likely to happen to the two polar ice sheets as temperatures rise, based on an astonishing range of data - geological, biological and climatic - hidden within the rock cores when similar climatic events occurred millions of years ago.

Award-winning climate palaeontologist Tim Naish, of Victoria University, whose findings were published in the prestigious Nature magazine last year, noted that the last time C02 levels in the atmosphere were this high, the average global temperature was as much as five degrees warmer.

It is also becoming apparent that the height of sea level rise will differ from one land mass to another around the globe depending on its latitude and the volume of ocean surrounding it.

There is now little doubt we're all going to have to adapt to a sharp increase in sea level, which in many parts of the world will have unimaginable social and economic consequences. New Zealand scientists, with their expertise and experience operating in Antarctica, will continue to play a key role in the quest for more certainty around when, where and how much?

* Rob Fenwick attended the IPY conference in Oslo, Norway, as Chairman of Antarctica NZ.

- © Fairfax NZ News