Sports betting: Use your head not your heart

MATT MARKHAM
Last updated 11:00 20/06/2013

Earlier this week I had someone ask me how I would play the All Blacks third, and final, test match against the French this weekend at Yarrow Stadium.

Like I said last week, the All Blacks are safe way to attack sports betting.

But very rarely do you find much, if any, value.

Straight away you can rule a line through having a lick on the head-to-head option.

At $1.07 for the All Blacks to win, you are going to have to chuck a fair amount of moolah into the ring, to return a decent profit.

It is also a bet which is still slightly unpredictable, as nobody really knows which French side will turn up to play.

There is the possibility though, that a few well placed bets here and there can still net you a tidy profit - it's just a case of taking the time to trawl your way through the plethora of options available in the search of the best possible prices.

What I can suggest to anyone who is keen on making some money off Shag's men this weekend is to not bet with your heart.

Use your brain.

Avoid placing a bet on Owen Franks to score a try because your grandmother goes to knitting class with his grandmother. Think logically, and then bet accordingly.

Let's say you have $30 to spend on the match, and that you at least want to make your money back - a small profit is a good result for $30 of fun.

Stick with your Owen Franks bet, but just don't spend your whole kitty.

Take a third and put it on him to score - if he does, you'll be looking at a return of around $300.

Not bad for loyalty.

Keep in mind though, that in 46 test matches for the All Blacks, Franks is yet to score a try, so the odds are well against you.

With the remaining $20 in your pocket, I'd be looking to play it a little safer.

A nice bet option to play is when the first points will be scored in the match.

At $1.90, the chances of points being scored before the 13th minute look pretty appealing.

A solitary try was all last week's match had to show after 13 minutes last week, but with weather conditions looking bleak for Saturday night, the chances of penalties is high.

Slap your remaining $20 on that to happen and then hope Wyatt Crockett pulls down an early scrum within kicking distance for the French, or that the All Blacks pick up where the left off last week in Christchurch and start the match with a hiss and roar.

It's not going to get your rich, but if Franks barges over in the 10th minute of the match you will be in a position to be able to head along to knitting classes with his grandmother, and yours, boasting some of the most stylish knitting gear on offer.
 
If you enjoy a bet on the All Blacks, or rugby in general, which way do you like to play it? What bets tickle your fancy on a weekly basis?

Let us know below, or e-mail me matt.markham@press.co.nz

In The Kitty:

Horrible opening week, and a bad choice of bet on my part.

We will attack something a little more practical this week, and in doing so practice what we preach.

I'm a big fan of the points being scored inside the first 13 minutes bet in the All Blacks test. $20 on that will return a well over the odds profit of $38.

Opening balance: $90. Bets placed. $20. Closing balance: $70.

- © Fairfax NZ News

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