NZ's power, pace will undo Wales

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All Blacks coach Steve Hansen's old cliche was about as succinct as it got in the buildup to tomorrow morning's test.

"It only takes a drop to break a drought," Hansen drawled at the team naming.

It wouldn't be a bad line for the attack coach to roll out in the changing sheds at Millennium Stadium in Cardiff.

From the haka onward, Wales will be looking for Hansen's drop, that moment where the All Blacks doubt, and the 70,000-plus Welshmen in attendance believe they can win.

Pressure, as Munster showed on last year's northern tour, can make young players, even All Blacks, do silly things.

It is the desperation of the home side to break their 26-year, 22-match drought that makes this contest so enthralling.

The history behind the clash is rich, from Bob Deans' disallowed try in 1905 through the era of Jonathan Davies to last year's haka standoff.

Wales coach Warren Gatland has added his own chapter in trying to tear down the aura of his former team.

The All Blacks' greatest threat is the emotional charge from the singing masses in the stands, and Dan Carter's accurate boot may take the wind out of them.

The average score between these two sides is 30-9 and on paper a similar scoreline is not out of the question.

Wales have game breakers in the midfield in second five-eighth Jamie Roberts and centre Tom Shanklin, but it will be interesting to see if they ape South Africa and look to the skies.

Wing Shane Williams' powers have been on the wane, fullback James Hook is out of position and wing Leigh Halfpenny is a 20-year-old rookie. It is similar up front, where Paul James, in just his second test, has switched sides to play one of the most important positions on the field at tighthead prop.

Wales also have a third-string halfback in Gareth Cooper. It is hardly the stuff of legend.

The same may be said of the All Blacks, with two key men suspended and six changes from the side that beat Australia in Tokyo.

But there is little between most of the players who have come in and those they replaced.

Arguably, Jerome Kaino and Jason Eaton have added a harder edge to the pack, while Kieran Read is a form horse at No8 and if halfback Brendon Leonard can rediscover his confidence the No8-No9 combination could make life tough for Wales running wide off scrums.

The All Blacks appear to have changed their attack under Hansen's guidance.

Angles have become more direct, with players running short balls back against the drift defence and halfbacks given the scope to switch play from second-phase ball.

The ball is going behind decoy runners less often and fancy short kicks are being used more economically.

Quick ball remains the All Blacks' staple goal and they will send the bare minimum to the breakdown until they are forced to do otherwise by Welsh openside Martyn Williams.

The power and pace of the All Blacks backs will be the chief undoing of the Welsh.

If the first half is a war in the trenches, expect the second to belong to fly boys Zac Guildford, Mils Muliaina and Cory Jane. Factor in midfielders Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith and Wales will do well to keep their line intact.

- © Fairfax NZ News