Golden chance for Fiji missed

TWENTY-FIVE months after the military seized control of Fiji, Commodore Frank Bainimarama continues to chuckle in the face of his Pacific neighbours. Since he seized power in 2006, deadlines have come and gone along with a number of Pacific Islands Forum talkfests. In Australia and New Zealand's cases, the Commodore has now outlasted the administrations of two of his most vociferous critics, Prime Ministers Helen Clark and John Howard.

This week's Pacific Islands Forum in Port Moresby went the way of all the others.The illegal Fiji regime has been told it has another four months to come up with an election date, and Fijians must make it to the polls by December 31. If it doesn't comply the forum's stick comes out, but it's more of twig than anything substantial.

Non-compliance will result in Fiji being partially suspended from participating in the forum Bainimarama's administration will not be able to take part at a ministerial and leadership level and regional cooperation and assistance could be withdrawn.

Prime Minister John Key was talking tough ahead of the forum. Stick a bowler hat and moustache on him after the meeting and you could be forgiven for mistaking him for a young Neville Chamberlain.

The vague threat of future sanctions and a partial suspension is not enough. The stance smacks of appeasement. It is clearly designed as a compromise to keep Pacific minnows Kiribati and Tuvalu onside, but put enough of a squeeze on Fiji to save political face.

Tuvalu and Kiribati are heavily dependent on Fiji and had threatened to quit if it were suspended. Without that trio, the forum would virtually have disintegrated.

For Commodore Bainimarama the squeeze is tantamount to some gentle elbow pressure, rather than the thumbscrew he needs to get the ballot box out.

The Port Moresby forum will go down in history as a missed opportunity because it was the best chance the forum has had to bring real pressure to bear on Fiji.

With help desperately needed to recover from devastating floods, the regime has never looked more vulnerable. The prospect of a miserable domestic situation getting worse was the perfect chance to focus the Commodore's mind on meeting his democratic obligations or face a political nightmare at home.

Rather than strengthening the Commodore's grip, leaving Fiji to its own devices would drive home to its people the realities of life under a pariah government.

Fiji's protestations about needing more time to prepare for elections are a nonsense and the Commodore has said he will take 10 years if he needs to. The regime has had 25 months and in all likelihood will call the forum's bluff again when the May deadline rolls around.

Sadly, Fiji's neighbours have let the people down again.