Editorial: Is a tragedy inevitable?

OPINION: Was it inevitable that things would escalate to the extent that they have, and are they destined to get a lot worse?

While the incident in which a high-tech anti-whaling boat was rammed by a security boat for the Japanese whaling fleet on Wednesday was shocking, it's nonetheless difficult to say it comes as a surprise.

Tensions between the whaling fleet, carrying out their annual mission under the guise of scientific research, and those opposed to their presence, led by the Sea Shepherd group, have clearly been rising in recent southern summers.

So the incident doesn't really come out of the blue and, given that neither side appears likely to back down, it's probably reasonable to expect that things may become more serious in the near future.

Of course, as a country New Zealand is opposed to this ongoing whaling by the Japanese, even in a limited form, as is our closest neighbour, Australia. We would rather it wasn't happening, which is why we have argued so strongly in this regard before the International Whaling Commission in the past.

Plainly, there are those who feel a lot more strongly about this situation than others and are motivated to do something about it, devoting time and energy to the anti-whaling cause, a process quite possibly accompanied by great personal sacrifice.

Certainly, groups like Sea Shepherd, while they may not have been able to bring whaling to a halt in Antarctic waters, have succeeded in making a major nuisance of themselves and keeping the fact always before the Japanese fleet that their presence there is resented.

But what will it really achieve for that cause if people end up dead? We have already seen that the two sides are strongly fighting their own corners, as has been the case in the past. A crew member of the Ady Gil has described the ramming as "attempted murder" while the Japanese have accused the Ady Gil's crew of various actions aimed at hampering its vessels.

So, with neither side giving an inch in the war of words, is it inevitable that the conflict will simply escalate to the point where a real tragedy occurs? It's difficult to see how that will benefit the whales the protesters are trying to save, especially if a vessel ends up sinking in Antarctic waters and causes major damage to the marine environment in the area.

There is no way New Zealand and Australia will ever give up the fight against whaling, and neither should they, but perhaps those on the frontline of the protests need to assess exactly where the whole process is heading, and whether or not that's the best route to accomplishing what they hope to achieve.

- © Fairfax NZ News