Editorial: The inevitable coming soon

OPINION: As night follows day, the prospect of a visit by a member of the British royal family inevitably sparks an outbreak of republican sentiment in New Zealand.

This week's arrival of Prince William, second in line to the throne and the general public's red hot favourite to take over from his grandmother the Queen, was, unsurprisingly, preceded by fresh talk of creating a New Zealand republic.

This time round there is more than just hot air with Green MP Keith Locke's bid to get a referendum on the issue due to reach Parliament in March.

Mr Locke's private member bill was chosen in the ballot in October and is not, according to its promoter, a republican bill. It sure as heck looks like one.

Known as the Head of State Referenda Bill, it proposes a two stage referenda.

Mr Locke wants New Zealanders to vote in a referendum on whether they want to retain the status quo – Queen Elizabeth as our head of state with the Governor General as her local proxy – or ditch the monarchy and move to a New Zealand head of state selected by a democratic process.

In the first referendum votes will be asked to choose between retaining the monarch; creating a New Zealand head of state approved by 75 per cent of parliament; or electing a New Zealand head of state directly elected by the people via the single transferable vote preferential system. STV voting would make sure the winner had a mandate from over 50 per cent of the electorate.

The second stage referendum kicks in if any of the three options fail to get 50 per cent of the vote. In that case the there would be a run-off between the two leading options in a second vote.

Mr Locke's argument picks up on the republican movement's most persuasive point – that the monarchy is anachronistic because the system precludes a New Zealander – no matter what their merits – from ever becoming our head of state.

Mr Locke's new head of state would get the same powers as those the Queen and Governor General and would not change the status of the Treaty of Waitangi.

The Green MP reckons he has a good chance of getting the bill to the select committee stage because he has the support of Labour and the Maori Party to push it that far.

In other words, they'll agree to test the waters at select committee level. At that point the real horse trading and politicking will begin.

The republican football has been kicked around for years without any danger of anyone ever kicking it between the posts, but Mr Locke's bill may well change that.

When he was in opposition Prime Minister John Key said a move to creating a republic was inevitable, but was not a pressing issue. Mr Locke's luck in the ballot means the inevitable may be just around the corner.

- © Fairfax NZ News