Nats ahead in both city seats

A Waikato Times poll shows the general election is too close to call on the city's west side, yet overall it points to a clear National victory.

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Sitting National MP David Bennett is poised for a landslide election night win in Hamilton East, according to a Waikato Times-Versus Research poll.

But it's too close to call in Hamilton West, where National's Tim Macindoe leads Labour incumbent MP Martin Gallagher, 37 per cent to 35 per cent, with 16 per cent still undecided.

The poll reveals an intriguing battle unfolding on the west side of the river, while on the east side the outcome looks much easier to pick.

In 2005 a similar poll, two weeks out from the election, showed Mr Macindoe ahead by five per cent in Hamilton West though he eventually lost by a margin of 825 votes.

However, the outcome is stark in the critical party vote across both city electorates. National has 49 per cent of the vote to Labour's 25 per cent, with the Greens and New Zealand First next best on three per cent.

Even more troubling for Labour is the fact the biggest "key deciding issue" identified by voters in deliberating on their party vote nominated by 17 per cent of those polled was "Fed up with current Government/Time for a change of Government".

In Hamilton East, Mr Bennett looks set to increase his victory margin of 2005, when he won the seat by 5298.

The poll showed him having 61 per cent of the electorate vote, with Labour's Sue Moroney a distant second with 14 per cent. "Don't Knows" made up 13 per cent. That's despite a boundary change which has taken many blue-rinse city-fringe lifestyle blocks out of the electorate.

"We've worked very hard, and been very supportive of local issues," Mr Bennett said.

"Hamilton is a reflection of nationwide polling and we (National) have been polling well across the country.

"But there is a long way to go in the election, it will be a tough campaign, and we will fight on the issues."

The poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday evenings and Mr Bennett does not appear to have suffered from the mixed messages coming out of the National camp at that time about toll roads for the Waikato expressway. Ms Moroney said National only "changed its tune" on welcoming an expressway toll after its party's controversial Australian consultants, Crosby Textor, "got them to go into damage control".

The outcome of the neck-and neck race in Hamilton West between Mr Gallagher and Mr Macindoe is further clouded by 16 per cent of "Don't knows".

National is more popular among the Hamilton East electorate with 58 per cent intending to vote for them compared with 40 per cent in the Hamilton West electorate.

National's strongest supporters are aged 30-49 with 55 per cent of people in this age group intending to vote for them.

The economy is more important to men as a deciding issue (10 per cent) than women (five per cent).

Health and education are more important to women (six per cent and seven per cent respectively) than men (two per cent and three per cent).

Student loans are an issue to 10 per cent of 18-29 year olds compared to only one per cent of those in other age groups. Tax is more important to those under 50 (16 per cent) than those 50-plus (six per cent).

- © Fairfax NZ News